Global stock markets record best first quarter in five years

Stay informed with free updates

Simply sign up to the World myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox.

Good morning. Global stock markets have recorded their best first-quarter performance in five years, buoyed by hopes of a soft economic landing in the US and enthusiasm about artificial intelligence.

An MSCI index of worldwide stocks has gained 7.7 per cent this year, the most since 2019, with stocks outperforming bonds by the biggest margin in any quarter since 2020, even as traders scale back their expectations for rapid interest rate cuts.

The charge has been helped by the S&P 500, which has closed at a record high on 22 separate occasions during the quarter.

The AI boom has fuelled the market’s gains, with chip designer Nvidia adding more than $1tn in market value during the first three months of the year, equivalent to about one-fifth of the total gain for global stock markets over that period. Here’s a breakdown of how different indices have performed.

• Opinion: While the AI boom has broadened across Wall Street, there are still good reasons to question whether it can justify the stock market’s wider tech surge, writes Richard Waters.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today and over the weekend:

• Economic data: The US reports personal consumption expenditures inflation data today, while France has its consumer price index for March.

• Good Friday: Financial markets in the UK, US, Germany and elsewhere are closed today.

• Evan Gershkovich: Today marks one year since the Wall Street Journal reporter was arrested by Russia and accused of espionage.

• Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s candidate for Istanbul mayor and his battle to reclaim the city from the opposition will be the focus of local elections on Sunday.

How well did you keep up with the news this week? Take our quiz.

Five more top stories

1. Exclusive: OpenAI has recently met with major Hollywood studios to showcase its video generation technology Sora and allay fears the artificial intelligence model will harm the industry. Chief executive Sam Altman and chief operating officer Brad Lightcap gave presentations to executives from industry giants, people with knowledge of the meetings said. Here are the studios the start-up’s leaders visited.

2. The chief of Lloyd’s of London has said insurers should “just get on with it” and pay out for the Baltimore bridge collapse, rather than wait for years of wrangling over which part of the sector is liable. The global insurance sector is expecting billions of dollars of claims after the Dali container ship struck the Francis Scott Key Bridge on Tuesday, in what Lloyd’s boss John Neal said could be the largest marine insurance claim in history.

3. Indonesia will press on with plans to expand nickel output despite a supply glut that is forcing rivals to shut down mines, as the world’s top producer aims to keep prices low and protect long-term demand for the metal crucial to electric car batteries, a senior government official said. Here’s why the country has no intention of slowing production.

4. Israel’s supreme court has dealt a blow to Benjamin Netanyahu’s rightwing coalition after it ordered state subsidies to be suspended for many ultraorthodox Jews who attend religious schools instead of doing military service. The interim order came after the court’s ruling that exempting religious students from Israel’s compulsory military service was unconstitutional, a contentious topic that threatens to split the prime minister’s government.

• Israel-Hamas war: The UN’s International Court of Justice has ordered Israel to ensure that more aid reaches Palestinians in Gaza, warning that famine is “setting in” there as the war enters its sixth month.

5. Egyptian-born tycoon Mohamed Mansour, a major UK Conservative party donor, has been awarded a knighthood in honours unveiled by Downing Street. Labour has criticised the move to reward Mansour, who last year gave the Tories £5mn in what was at the time their biggest donation since 2001. Here are the others recognised in yesterday’s announcement.

• 🎬 Watch: In the latest edition of Sketchy Politics, the FT’s Robert Shrimsley and Miranda Green discuss whether there is anything Rishi Sunak and the Tories can do to recover in the polls.

For more on British politics, sign up for our Inside Politics newsletter by Stephen Bush.

News in-depth

When BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink warned of a looming “retirement crisis” this week, he not only drew attention to a long-rumbling societal problem but also highlighted a business opportunity that his money manager, its rivals and insurers are all hoping to cultivate. Countries around the world are struggling to fund old age benefits as longevity increases, but the US has a particularly acute problem, as more than 4.1mn Americans retire annually — or a predicted 11,200 people each day between now and 2027.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Sam Bankman-Fried: The FTX founder and one-time master of persuasion yesterday failed to win over the person who mattered most: a federal judge who consigned him to 25 years behind bars.

• Moscow attack: A survivor who escaped the concert hall with a bullet in his back tells the FT that the terrifying experience, which lasted minutes, felt like “a whole lifetime”.

• Africa’s middle class: The story of a 32-year-old car driver in Zambia reflects the everyday Sisyphean struggles faced by tens of millions of aspirational Africans, writes David Pilling.

• Falling birth rates: John Burn-Murdoch explains why family-friendly policies have failed to encourage people to have more babies.

Chart of the day

Anyone cracking open an Easter egg this year may notice two things: not only is it a lot more expensive, it’s also smaller. A historic rally in cocoa prices means that chocolate makers are particularly likely to turn to shrinkflation as a way of passing on costs.

Take a break from the news

From hot cross buns to the perfect lamb, five cooks share their secrets to a flawless Easter banquet.

Additional contributions from Benjamin Wilhelm and Alexander James