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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
China’s obesity crisis is a sizeable profit opportunity. More than half of Chinese adults are overweight or obese — a figure expected to hit two-thirds by 2030. That is nearly 900mn people, a market far larger than the US, and one that pharmaceutical groups are rushing to dominate.
This is a boost for Novo Nordisk. The Danish drugmaker is already enjoying a global windfall from its blockbuster weight loss treatments. Revenue from the country rose 13 per cent last year to DKK18.5bn ($2.6bn), even though Wegovy was only launched in November 2024.
But this golden era may be shortlived. Novo Nordisk’s market dominance in China comes with an expiration date: March 20, 2026. That’s when the patent currently protecting semaglutide — the active ingredient in weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy — expires, and the doors open to a flood of local rivals. And they are more than ready.
At least 15 Chinese drugmakers are racing to sell their own versions of semaglutide. Among them, Huadong Medicine is leading the charge, already in the final stage of clinical trials. Peer Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering has applied for approval of a treatment it claims has similar clinical efficacy and safety to Ozempic. A long list of both biotech start-ups and established drugmakers are lining up behind these two with their own alternatives.
The opportunity isn’t confined to China. The growing demand for weight loss drugs in countries like India, where obesity is an increasing public health concern, means there is room for growth outside of home. Shares of Huadong Medicine are up a quarter in the past six months while Hangzhou Jiuyuan is up a third from last year’s lows, reflecting expectations for their weight loss drugs.
Novo Nordisk’s patent loss is not just a business challenge — it is part of a much larger shift in China’s pharma sector. For decades, local drugmakers were known primarily as mass producers of generics, manufacturing low-cost copies of existing drugs rather than innovating on their own. But in recent years, local drugmakers have been moving up the value chain, with groups like BeiGene and Junshi Biosciences making progress in areas like oncology and immunotherapy, securing US and European regulatory approvals.
If local drugmakers show they can successfully scale and commercialise homegrown semaglutide alternatives, it would represent another step in China’s continuing transition from a manufacturer of low-cost generics to a more competitive presence in the global pharma industry.
