US political betting groups are boasting of having outdone pollsters in correctly calling the result of the presidential election.
“Make no mistake, Polymarket single-handedly called the election before anything else,” Shayne Coplan, the company’s chief executive, said on X. “The global truth machine is here, powered by the people.”
While polls based their prediction on voters’ stated intentions, betting markets imply a result based on punters’ bets.
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Electoral polls underestimated support for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020, prompting pollsters to tweak their methodology. Ahead of Tuesday’s vote, national aggregate polling averages showed Kamala Harris holding a slight lead over Trump.
Tarek Mansour, chief executive at Kalshi, another betting group, on X summed up the result simply: “Polls 0. Prediction Markets 1.”
“And it wasn’t just last night,” he continued. “Polls were overwhelmingly inaccurate while prediction markets were spot on.”