Scott Moe downplayed Sask.’s rural-urban election divide. Here’s what the polls show

With the exception of Saskatchewan’s most northern constituencies, the Saskatchewan Party is either leading or projected to win in all ridings outside the province’s largest cities in the 2024 provincial election.

The NDP, meanwhile, is either leading or projected to win nearly all Regina and Saskatoon ridings, ousting several veteran cabinet ministers in the process.

Despite that, projected premier-designate Scott Moe said he disagrees that the election demonstrates an urban-rural divide in the province.

“I know, regardless of who you voted for in this election, you did so because you wanted what was best for the province that we know, love and live in,” Moe said.

“In this, I would say, each of us is united.”

Others — like the former Saskatchewan Party finance minister, Donna Harpauer — said otherwise.

“I think this election is going to show that that divide is fairly wide yet again. It has been in the past. And it’s going to be on the new government to kind of bridge that gap again and bring the urban and rural back together,” she said in an interview Monday night, before the final victory projection was made.

Harpauer also served as deputy premier and one of Moe’s most trusted cabinet members. She did not make a bid for re-election in her former Humboldt-Watrous riding this time around.

What do numbers, experts say?

In Regina, the NDP is projected to win 11 of 12 seats and is leading the other. In Saskatoon the party is leading or projected to win in all but two of the city’s 14 ridings.

The seats that haven’t been projected are too close to call, with more mail-in ballots expected to be counted on Wednesday and a final count planned for Nov. 9.

The NDP’s only projected seats beyond the two cities are in the province’s north: the Cumberland riding and Athabasca, a long-held NDP seat that was narrowly lost in a 2022 byelection.

Experts say both parties failed to secure the seats they had hoped to.

If the NDP holds its position in Regina, it would be the first time since the Sask. Party gained power that it has been swept out of the city.

The Sask. Party’s lowered popularity in the larger cities is a “pretty big loss,” according to Charles Smith, an associate political science professor at the University of Saskatchewan’s St. Thomas More College. 

“They won a majority, there’s no question about that,” he said.

“But they’ve been virtually shut out in the two urban centres where the majority of people live, which suggest there has been a pretty big rejection of their time in government.”

According to data from the most recent census in 2021, the two major cities compose about 43.5 per cent of the province’s population.

The projected seat loss for former minister of justice and attorney general Bronwyn Eyre means there will likely be an opening for those portfolios. The province’s next attorney general is likely to be a non-lawyer, Smith said.

“We’re really going to be looking at a rural caucus that doesn’t have a lot of experience in cabinet,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Saskatchewan NDP showed a competitiveness it hasn’t in a generation, Smith said, but early results show it was not enough to break ground in ridings beyond the city borders — also a pretty big loss.

Sask. among provinces facing urban-rural election divide

Daniel Westlake, assistant professor in the department of political studies at University of Saskatchewan, said the rural-urban divide isn’t unique to Saskatchewan. 

He noted Manitoba’s election, where the Manitoba NDP dominated Winnipeg and the province’s larger northern ridings, but was less successful in southern seats.

In Alberta, the Alberta NDP was strongest in Calgary and Edmonton — sweeping Edmonton and taking 14 of the 26 seats in Calgary — but fell short beyond those borders.

“It’s a problem, I think, that the Sask. Party and the NDP need to be thinking about carefully,” Westlake said.

“When you see broader trends like this, sometimes this is more difficult than a single party in a single province can solve. Sometimes you’re dealing with broader cultural and social phenomena that are really challenging for politicians.”