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The EU should spend a fifth of its common budget on security and crisis preparedness as it enters a period of increased risk from geopolitical tensions and climate change, Finland’s former president warned in a landmark report on the bloc’s defence.
Brussels had tasked Sauli Niinistö earlier this year with assessing the EU’s security needs following Russia’s war against Ukraine, Moscow’s hybrid threats and intensifying natural disasters.
“The defining task today is to make sure that we are able to provide security to Europeans by being prepared for all risks, and that scale of risk is huge,” Niinistö said Wednesday when presenting the report which identified geopolitical tensions and climate change as the two biggest threats for the continent.
In his report Niinistö recommends that “at least 20 per cent of the overall EU budget contributes to the EU’s security and crisis preparedness.” The current budget which runs until 2027 amounts to €1.2tn — roughly 1 per cent of the EU’s GDP.
His findings came ahead of tense negotiations over the bloc’s next seven-year budget, with cash-strapped governments already reluctant about giving more money to Brussels.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, a former German defence minister, reiterated her call on EU governments to increase their preparedness in the face of Russian aggression.
“Putin’s war on Ukraine is the single biggest threat to our security . . . so we need to step up our efforts, knowing that preparing for the worst can help prevent the worst from happening,” said von der Leyen.
The prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House following next week’s US presidential election further increases pressure on European governments to raise their defence spending. Trump has threatened Nato allies to leave them at Russia’s mercy if they did not meet the alliance’s target of spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence.
During Niinistö’s presidency, Finland abandoned its long-held policy of neutrality after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and joined Nato. His second and last term in office ended in April.
The EU needs to increase its joint defence spending, the former Finnish president said, noting that “the overall volume of EU funds compared to national budgets is insufficient to really impact the [defence] market”.
Niinistö recommended that European citizens be prepared to stockpile goods that would last for at least 72 hours.
He also advocated for private investment in the defence sector and changing the mandate of the European Investment Bank to allow it to invest in this area. EU funds intended for competitiveness could be allocated with security needs in mind, he said.
But Niinistö stopped short of recommending fresh common EU debt for defence — something member states such as France have championed, but fiscally conservative countries like the Netherlands and Germany are wary of.
Von der Leyen earlier this year proposed using EU cash to boost the European defence industry and jointly procure weapons, replicating the Covid-19 vaccine procurement programme, but member states such as Germany have been wary of backing this idea.
On Wednesday, von der Leyen said additional funds for defence should come either from member state contributions or by creating new own revenue streams for the budget. “In one of these two elements, we have to decide how we move forward,” she said.