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EU capitals are racing to draw up assessments of the bloc’s biggest vulnerabilities if Donald Trump is re-elected to the White House, as polls suggest the contest is tilting in the former president’s favour.
Senior EU officials are holding daily meetings to outline where a Trump presidency could cause the most pain for the bloc, said people familiar with the talks.
They said topics under discussion included how to withstand a barrage of trade tariffs, offset an end to US aid to Ukraine and maintain sanctions against Russia if Washington lifts its restrictions.
“Everyone is taking everything much more seriously,” said one senior EU diplomat. “We are trying to make sure we will not be taken by surprise.”
The preparations include formal talks between EU ambassadors and the staff of European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, as well as informal groups of senior EU diplomats considering possible strategies.
Trump has vowed to impose flat 10 per cent tariffs on all imports and is critical of US support for Kyiv and sceptical of Nato, which underpins Europe’s defence.
Polling suggests he is in a dead heat against vice-president Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 election, and has overtaken his Democratic rival as the candidate Americans trust most with the economy, according to a Financial Times poll released this week.
“In my personal point of view, we will be in trouble. Deep trouble,” another EU diplomat said of a Trump win. “This disruptive element will be huge, and the unpredictability will be huge.”
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Charles Michel, the European Council president who represents EU member states, told the FT that a Trump victory would lead to “immediate decisions” by the new US administration “that would have an immediate impact, a huge impact in the short term in Europe, for sure”.
Michel added: “If it is Trump, it would be an additional wake-up call that we need to act more to take our destiny in our own hands.”
Officials fear Trump’s threatened tariffs could reduce EU exports to the US by about €150bn a year.
The commission, which manages trade policy, has already drafted a strategy to offer Trump a quick deal on increasing US imports to the EU and only resort to targeted retaliation if he opts for punitive tariffs.
Goldman Sachs forecast this week that the euro could fall by as much as 10 per cent against the dollar if Trump were to impose widespread tariffs and slash domestic taxes, while a study by the German Economic Institute in Cologne said a trade war could lower the GDP of the EU’s biggest economy by 1.5 per cent.
The biggest short-term security concern of EU officials is how to continue support to Ukraine if Trump cuts off a flow of weapons that has played a vital role in helping Kyiv thwart Russia’s invasion.
The EU has provided more financial support to Ukraine than the US. But American weapons stockpiles and capabilities are far larger than European countries’. Officials briefed on the discussions say there is no possibility EU militaries could match what the US is providing.
Officials in the bloc are also deeply concerned that a Trump administration would lift sanctions on Russia. That would raise the question of how much economic pressure the EU could maintain on Moscow without US support, even if Japan, the UK and other allies kept sanctions in place.
Trump’s scepticism towards Nato has also exacerbated long-running fears about European reliance on US security guarantees.
“Right now we are arguing amongst ourselves about how to raise €100bn for defence and whether we really need to,” said another EU diplomat, referring to the bloc’s debate about a joint debt issue. “If Trump wins, we’ll instead be talking about €1tn and it won’t be optional.”
The EU talks to prepare for a possible Trump return to the White House have intensified over the past month. They follow von der Leyen’s decision this year to form a small in-house war room to prepare for the US election result, focused mainly on trade and security issues.
Nato officials are also brainstorming on how to minimise potential disruption and “Trump-proof” as much Ukraine support as possible. One option would be to give the 32-nation alliance a greater say in co-ordinating weapons supply and the training of Ukrainian troops to reduce US direct control over both issues.
The alliance’s new secretary-general Mark Rutte, who maintained good relations with Trump during the former president’s first term, said last week that Nato “will not lose” its unity on Ukraine.
But Michel said there was no guarantee that Harris would maintain existing US policy towards Ukraine, arguing that both candidates would probably identify the US economy as their key priority.
“Maybe the tone will be more polite, in one case, less polite in another, more brutal in one case, less brutal in another,” he said. “But the fact is there is a protectionist trend in the United States.”
Additional reporting by Guy Chazan in Berlin