Staffing at Canada’s embassy in Moscow has dropped to a level so low that if Canada were to expel any Russian diplomats from this country, it could result in the Moscow embassy’s closure.
Documents made public by the inquiry into foreign interference in Canada reveal that, as of July, Canada had only 17 diplomats left at its embassy in Russia — a level one expert describes as “bare bones” and one of the lowest levels seen in decades. Since then, it has dropped by even more.
“Canada currently has twelve diplomats in Russia, with some positions vacant, pending staffing,” said Charlotte MacLeod, spokesperson for Global Affairs.
Russia has 68 accredited diplomats across Canada.
Ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there have been calls for Canada to follow the lead of other countries by expelling Russian diplomats. In February 2023, the House of Commons foreign affairs committee recommended that “the Government of Canada expel Russian diplomats involved in any activities that are not consistent with their official diplomatic status.”
The foreign interference inquiry has heard from witnesses who say Russian diplomats in Canada are engaging in disinformation campaigns with the goal of destabilizing Canadian society.
The Canadian government says it has slapped economic sanctions on more than 3,000 individuals and entities in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova since 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea.
It has not expelled any Russian diplomats since 2018, when it sent four Russian officials with diplomatic status home and refused to accredit three others following a nerve agent attack in the U.K. Russia responded by expelling four Canadian diplomats.
Testifying before the foreign interference inquiry last week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was asked why Canada hasn’t expelled any Russian diplomats over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. He said it’s important for Canada to have diplomats in Russia.
“I know for a fact that Canada’s diplomatic presence in Russia is reaching a point at which, should it decrease much further, would be difficult to sustain at all and I believe that there is value in continuing to have Canadians in Russia as it continues to be such a bad actor on the world stage,” Trudeau told the inquiry.
Earlier, the inquiry heard other witnesses testify that Canada is often reluctant to declare a foreign diplomat persona non grata and order them to leave the country because it often results in the country involved expelling Canadian diplomats.
The Russian delegation in Canada likely could lose some diplomats and still be sustainable. Trudeau suggested that might not be the case for the Canadian delegation in Russia.
“The small number of Canadian diplomats currently in Russia [has] reached something close to a threshold where if we go any, or much, lower, we might not be able to have a diplomatic presence in Russia at all,” he said.
“And we feel that we can do more for Ukraine and for the rules-based order in the world by continuing to be present in Russia as Canada always has, including through the Cold War.”
In May, Canada’s Ambassador to Russia Sarah Taylor told CBC Radio’s The House that relations between Canada and Russia had deteriorated.
“I would say it’s certainly a relationship that is extremely poor at the moment, probably the poorest it’s ever been” since the fall of the Soviet Union, Taylor said.
MacLeod said a number of considerations influence the staffing of a particular embassy.
“The Canadian embassy in Moscow is a mid-sized Canadian mission,” she wrote in an e-mailed response. “Canada’s diplomatic presence in any country is determined by several factors and varies depending on national priorities and strategic interests.”
MacLeod said Global Affairs doesn’t discuss deliberations regarding expelling diplomats publicly, nor does it disclose operational details related to missions abroad, for security reasons.
Ferry de Kerckhove, a longtime Canadian diplomat who served as the second in command of Canada’s embassy in Moscow in the early 1990s, said the embassy is close to the “bare, bare bones” level of staffing — far below the 100 diplomats posted there during his time in the embassy, when Russia was opening up to Canada and the West.
“It must be hell to be working in Moscow right now,” he said.
De Kerchhove said a normal staffing level for the embassy in Russia would be around 40 to 45 diplomats.
‘Everything is possible in Russia’
Security considerations are likely a factor in the current staffing level, said de Kerckhove.
“I presume the government of Canada doesn’t want to put its staff in harm’s way in one way or another, considering the way the Russians are treating people like journalists and others,” he said. “At what stage would they seize a diplomat, use a diplomat or whatever — everything is possible in Russia, where I lived for three years, from ’92 to ’95.”
De Kerckhove said it’s essential for the embassy to maintain consular services for Canadians in Russia and to maintain security for the delegation. But given the state of the bilateral economic relationship, he added, there aren’t likely many — if any — Canadian trade representatives in Moscow at the moment.
If staff levels dropped too low for Canada to keep the embassy in Moscow open, that would become a “diplomatic declaration,” said De Kerckhove.
‘An eye for an eye’
Dani Belo is an assistant professor of international relations and security at Webster University in St. Louis and a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute in Ottawa. He said any move by Canada to expel Russian diplomats likely would lead to retaliation and it would be Russia — not Canada — deciding who is sent home from Moscow.
“By convention, when there is the expulsion of diplomats, there is sort of an eye for an eye. In other words, there is a proportionate expulsion of diplomats from the other side,” Belo said.
“The challenge becomes when the numbers get very low. There’s a minimum that you would need to effectively run the mission and basically, at this stage, this is the critical number of people that is necessary in order to operate a mission effectively.”
Belo said Canada has to keep lines of communication open with Russia. While the trade relationship has diminished, he said, Canada and Russia remain Arctic neighbours and have to be able to communicate on such things as search-and-rescue operations in the region.
Belo also questioned why Russia has so many diplomats in Canada to manage a relationship that’s much smaller than in the past.
“There seems to be a disproportionate number of people handling a very simple, non-complex relationship between the two countries.”