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Voters across much of Europe are flocking to populist and nationalist parties seeking an alternative to mainstream politics. But the victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Sunday’s regional elections in Thuringia is particularly disturbing. It marks the party’s first victory in a state parliament ballot, and the AfD came a close second to the centre-right in neighbouring Saxony. And it comes against the backdrop of Germany’s dark history of political extremism and multi-generation effort to come to terms with its Nazi past.
The AfD’s rise is also more troubling than those of equivalents in France or Italy, say, because of its radicalism. Some members openly espouse ethno-nationalist and xenophobic views, and sections of it are deemed extremist by Germany’s security services. Björn Höcke, AfD’s leader in Thuringia, was convicted of using banned Nazi slogans. That nearly a third of voters in Thuringia and Saxony voted for it is deeply unsettling. Another 10-15 per cent voted for the populist hard-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), whose anti-immigrant and pro-Russia stances chime with the AfD’s.
There is a regional dimension to the far right’s success. Parts of eastern Germany, such as Thuringia and Saxony, are more fertile ground for the AfD than the west. The party’s scores here are nearly double its national polling average. Despite the remarkable transformation of the former communist east since reunification, too many easterners feel neglected, ignored and looked down on by their compatriots in the west. Imagined inferiority is ripe for exploitation by populists. Changing it could take another generation.
Although Germany of all countries cannot afford to be complacent, the AfD is unlikely to share power at regional level any time soon, let alone take it at federal level. The “firewall” against co-operating with it remains intact. But the AfD’s success will still do damage — first to Thuringia and Saxony, where migrant workers badly needed to fill jobs may be put off by anti-foreigner sentiment.
The elections are also likely to further destabilise an already dysfunctional and deeply unpopular federal government of social democrats, liberals and greens one year ahead of national elections. Led weakly by centre-left chancellor Olaf Scholz, the parties seem to see more value in fighting than governing together. The prospect of electoral meltdown will only make that worse. Yet the coalition’s ineffectiveness has been perfect fuel for an anti-establishment vote.
So has its alleged laxity on irregular migration. In a panic before Sunday’s elections, the government last week relented to opposition pressure and deported a handful of failed asylum-seekers to Afghanistan. Germany, like other EU countries, needs to improve its record on removals to restore confidence in migration policy. But it also needs to attract migrant labour, while finding a way to secure public support.
The danger of the far right’s electoral advance is that mainstream parties are pulled on to their ground but fail to dissuade voters from choosing the radical original. This is a particular trap for the Christian Democratic Union, on course to win the next general election. It has shifted to the right under leader Friedrich Merz and is now seeking an unlikely coalition in Thuringia and Saxony with the anti-immigrant BSW. Last week Merz said Germany should be prepared to reimpose land border controls to stop all asylum-seekers.
Another risk is that mainstream parties dial back support for Ukraine because the pro-Russia AfD and BSW exploited scepticism about the policy among voters in the east. With little or no formal role in government, the extremists could conceivably push Germany towards a policy that would be a disaster for Ukraine — and for the security of Europe.