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The stories that matter on money and politics in the race for the White House
The writer is a pollster and political strategist
An already unpredictable 2024 US presidential campaign became even more unpredictable on Sunday. The chaos caused by Joe Biden dropping out of the race could and should have been averted. But self-denial, always a factor in politics, was in full force in the weeks after his disastrous debate with Donald Trump at the end of June — and it still threatens our democracy now.
As the great Paul Simon wrote: “A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.” For too long Washington politicians of all partisan stripes have colluded in a conspiracy of silence.
Even after a debate performance that led some Biden supporters to turn away in private, they still defended him in public. As for the vice-president, Kamala Harris, now looking likely to be the next Democratic presidential nominee, people have conveniently forgotten that she raised tens of millions of dollars for her 2020 presidential campaign, but dropped out before the first primary after failing to hone a convincing message. No Democrat has yet stood up to challenge her, even though many question her prospects behind closed doors.
On the Republican side, there are plenty of GOP politicos who do not agree with significant elements of Trump’s agenda and don’t like his vocabulary — but they too remain quiet. Their lack of courage is depressing, but significant. They know that a harsh rebuttal from a vengeful Trump could prematurely terminate their own political careers.
But in a campaign season that has rewarded style as much as substance, the Republicans are now lining up to score political points with their base by calling for Biden’s immediate resignation from the presidency. That’s going to turn off the majority of voters who appreciate the humanity of his situation and the difficulty of his decision. Never missing the chance to kick a man when he’s down, Trump and his followers have heaped abuse on Biden in the immediate aftermath of his announcement instead of focusing on drawing a clear contrast between the records of Trump and Harris, his presumptive opponent.
Republicans listen only to Republicans. Democrats listen only to Democrats. But as a pollster, my job is to listen to everyone. I moderated a focus group of undecided swing voters on Friday night to measure the combined impact of the debate three weeks ago, Biden’s post-debate interviews, his recent press conference, and the Republican convention.
Not one of these voters wanted Biden as the Democratic nominee — not because they disliked his policies, but because they didn’t think he could do the job for another four years. You can spin just about anything, but old is old.
To my surprise, only one of the participants preferred Harris as the Democratic nominee. All the others chose someone else or had no preference at all. That tells me that the presidential head-to-head polling, after an initial Harris bump, is likely to go unchanged in the coming weeks, even with Harris now on top of the ticket. She will have to wait for the Democratic convention to have her redefining moment.
But the focus group’s evaluation of Trump’s convention speech was hardly what his campaign had hoped for either: too long, too boring, too Trumpian, they said. The unity he promised in the opening moments gave way to the same name-calling that keep these undecideds still undecided.
It’s not because they like some elements of both campaigns and simply can’t decide. It’s because they dislike both candidates (Trump and Biden at the point of asking) and are trying to figure out who will do less damage to the country. Harris will therefore need to break free of Biden if she is to be successful.
It is in this environment of scepticism and cynicism that the Democratic leadership seems determined to prevent any possibility of an open convention. They appear to prefer the tidiness of presidential succession — even if it leads to elevating a flawed nominee — to the chaos and confusion of encouraging Democrats to express their opinions and potentially pick a politically more viable outsider without the baggage of the current administration.
But in their rush to judgment they need to remember that we have a democracy to protect. It would be damaging to an already weakened system just to hand the nomination to the heir apparent without any debate or discussion. If Democrats decide to give Harris the nomination by acclamation, Trump will undoubtedly claim, with some accuracy, that it was a rigged process orchestrated by the party elite. It may be better to suffer a few weeks more of political chaos than four years of regret and recrimination.