Unlock the US Election Countdown newsletter for free
The stories that matter on money and politics in the race for the White House
Joe Biden has made history. America’s oldest president has also become its first to voluntarily relinquish power since Lyndon Johnson in 1968 and before that arguably George Washington in 1796. His decision to step down as nominee, which came after weeks of tortured Democratic party debate about his waning cognitive abilities, is also likely to deliver more historic firsts. His endorsement of Kamala Harris, his vice-president, will probably ensure the first presidential nomination of a non-white female. Should she win a contested convention next month, Harris would start the official general election with a roughly even chance of defeating Donald Trump.
Though Biden took his time to heed the growing chorus of senior Democrats, big donors and media clamour to take this decision, he has left enough time for Democrats to unify around Harris, or another nominee, by the party’s convention in Chicago next month. Whether that historic gathering turns into a coronation of Harris, as Biden has now pledged to work towards, or a more divisive battle between other rivals for the role will only become clear in the coming days. Potential aspirants, such as California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Biden’s secretary of transportation, Pete Buttigieg, will have to think long and hard about whether they want to turn Harris’s now natural glide path to the nomination into a genuine fight.
The risks of being seen as blocking the ascent of a woman of colour are very high. Should they wound Harris but not succeed in stopping her, they would risk being blamed for her defeat in November. On the other hand, Harris is not widely viewed as a strong candidate. Her performance in the 2020 Democratic primaries was so weak that she dropped out before the first caucus was held. Her first 18 months as vice-president was a series of public relations disasters in which she flubbed her lines and had difficulty persuading anyone that she was on top of her brief of fixing the US-Mexico border crisis. Biden’s team made little secret of its low opinion of her abilities.
Since then, however, relations between Harris’s team and those around Biden has improved. She became the most effective spokesperson around the country for women’s right to abortion following the overturning of Roe vs Wade two years ago. And she showed more confidence in public, spearheading attacks on Trump’s felonious criminal record. In the past three weeks, her command of the issues, and her unquestioned public loyalty to Biden as he grappled with his decision, has won her strong plaudits. Many believe that her talents have been underestimated by the media and the US public, which gives her roughly the same low approval ratings as her boss.
Forecasting what will happen next in America’s House of Cards-like political drama would be foolhardy. There is no precedent for a president stepping down this late in a general election. Nor is there a recent example of a party winning the White House after a contested convention. Potential challengers to Harris will have to weigh those facts against their ambitions. But Harris will also have to weigh up the downsides of being seen as the beneficiary of an undemocratic coronation. Neither path is easy or precedented. Whatever happens will make history.