Donald Trump and JD Vance’s plans for the US economy

Good morning and welcome back to US Election Countdown. Today we’re covering:

• The Trump-Vance economic agenda

• Changing dynamics inside the Trump family

• An inflection point in the cash race

There’s change afoot on the Republican economic agenda. Once the party of free market conservatism, Trump’s choice of JD Vance as running mate has cemented its embrace of economic populism.

Here’s a look at what the Trump-Vance economic agenda could look like [free to read]:

1. Trade tensions

Trump’s trade battles were a hallmark of his first term — but much of his administration was divided on how far to take international tariffs. Republican lawmakers also provided an additional counterweight.

Now the party has largely rallied around Trump’s anti-globalisation and anti-immigration views. This could make US business wary of losing foreign markets and immigrant workers.

2. Tax cuts. But how deep?

The $1.7tn tax cuts Trump enacted in 2017 are set to expire next year — unless he’s back in the White House and makes them permanent.

In a renewed programme, though, some Republicans want the cuts to be less brazenly beneficial to wealthy individuals and businesses. There’s even been discussion about raising the corporate tax rate, according to Doug Holtz-Eakin, director of the American Action Forum, a right-leaning think-tank.

3. Fresh scrutiny for big business

Republicans’ unwavering support for big business is no longer a given, as fury with corporate America grows.

Anger has largely been directed at corporations’ progressive social goals (á la the stand-off between Florida governor Ron DeSantis and Walt Disney). But a recent FT-Michigan Ross poll also showed that Americans believe corporations, more than politicians, are responsible for their economic woes.

4. Mixed messages for deregulation

In sectors such as energy and climate a new Trump administration would work rapidly to roll back pollution and emission regulations.

In other areas, however, the answer is not straightforward. Vance has been supportive of tough antitrust policies that could put Big Tech on the back foot. He’s also joined Democrats like Elizabeth Warren in calling for regulators to claw back pay in the event of bank failures.

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Behind the scenes

In Trump’s Milwaukee entourage, one person has been noticeably absent: former first lady Melania Trump.

Melania delivered speeches in prime time during the Republican conventions in 2016 and 2020, but this time around she’s chosen to stay out of the limelight. (Although Trump officials insist she will make an appearance sometime this week.)

Her absence is part of a shifting dynamic in the Trump family. Ivanka and her husband Jared Kushner, top aides in the Trump White House, have also distanced themselves from the 2024 campaign.

According to Kate Andersen Brower, an author of several books about the White House, including First Women:

There is a lot of scar tissue for the Trump women.

“Ivanka was criticised by a lot of Democrats who thought she was going to be someone who could temper her father in the White House, and she couldn’t. Either she didn’t want to, or she couldn’t,” she said.

Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump is one person who has stepped in to fill the void. The 41-year-old former TV producer became co-chair of the Republican National Committee earlier this year, and delivered a keynote address on Tuesday night.

Donald Trump Jr has also seen his stock rise. The former president’s eldest son was a key player in putting JD Vance on the Republican ticket.

“Donald Trump has always relied heavily on his family and he is going to continue to do so,” said Mick Mulvaney, who was Trump’s acting White House chief of staff from 2019 to 2020.

It may be different family members in the second term . . . but his kids will always be his senior advisers.

Datapoint

For months we’ve been reporting on Biden’s fundraising advantage over Trump, but we’ve reached an inflection point. After a record second quarter, the Republican is now on track to outpace his Democratic rival.

Trump-aligned groups brought in more than $400mn between April and June, according to federal filings. That’s three times the first-quarter total and roughly double the total contributions from the same period of the 2020 election.

To boot, during the 2016 campaign, groups supporting the former president brought in just over $400mn throughout the entire campaign, according to our analysis.

The windfall came from both small donors responding to Trump’s criminal conviction and billionaires increasingly flocking to his campaign. Notably, Trump smashed his record for the most contributions in a 24-hour period on May 31, the day after he was convicted by a New York jury.

And the second-quarter figure is likely to tick up further as more political action committees report this weekend.

We also expect to learn more about donations to the Biden groups in the next few days when the president’s official campaign and one of the main Biden super Pacs are due to report. Democrats, however, fear the president’s fundraising could struggle following his weak performance in the June 27 debate.

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