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Beijing and Manila have held talks to manage tensions over a South China Sea reef that has become the most dangerous flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific that the US has warned is covered by its defence treaty with the Philippines.
Chinese and Philippine diplomats met in Manila on Tuesday to discuss the situation at the Second Thomas Shoal. In recent months, China’s coast guard has used increasingly aggressive tactics to stop the Philippines from sending supplies to marines stationed on a ship called the Sierra Madre that is marooned on the submerged reef.
The Philippines said the two sides had made “substantial progress” towards managing the tensions but that “significant differences” remained. It stressed that it would be “relentless” in protecting its maritime rights.
The meeting came two weeks after China on June 17 blocked a resupply mission with unprecedented violence, including ramming and boarding Philippine boats and threatening Filipino sailors with knives and axes. The Philippine ambassador to the US has warned that the dispute has the potential to spark a wider conflict.
The Second Thomas Shoal lies inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. China claims sovereignty over the reef, although its claim was rejected by an international tribunal in 2016. Manila grounded the ship on the submerged reef in 1999 in an effort to reinforce its claims to the area.
Underscoring the tension, the US has repeatedly warned China that its mutual defence treaty with the Philippines applies to the Sierra Madre.
“The situation is serious,” said one US official. “But the reasonably positive readout [from Manila about the talks] is an indication that both sides are being inventive in trying to take the temperature down and to come to some sort of common set of facts that will allow the Philippines to resupply indefinitely.”
“This is a good first step, but I don’t think anyone thinks the job is complete,” the official added.
The Biden administration has been watching the situation closely, particularly because the marines on the ship have not received any supplies in more than three weeks, meaning that Manila will have to attempt another supply mission very soon.
Some South China Sea experts worry that China has been emboldened by its success on June 17. Gregory Poling of the CSIS think-tank said that the incident could lead to more tension and “potentially violence”.
“The impunity with which China was able to use violence against Philippine troops will probably encourage it to use similar tactics again,” Poling said. “It also reinforces Beijing’s mistaken belief that the Philippines will ultimately buckle under pressure.”
The talks were held between Philippine and Chinese diplomats. A Philippine official said no members of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s National Security Council took part, unlike in previous rounds. “They may have purposefully excluded the participation of security sector agencies to take the temperature down,” the official said.
China did not immediately release information on the meeting, the first since both sides met in Shanghai in January. The so-called Bilateral Consultation Mechanism is generally held on an annual basis.