Rishi Sunak’s campaign is far too subtle

Good morning. Just three days to go until the last day of the general election campaign. Some thoughts on what, if anything, remains up in the air in this election.

Don’t forget to save your spot at the FT’s post-election live Q&A with me and Political Fix regulars Lucy Fisher, Robert Shrimsley, George Parker and Miranda Green. Join us at 1pm on Friday (signing up also gives you access to the webinar recording).

Go at it boldly

In today’s FT, the editorial board sets out why we think the Labour party under Keir Starmer is better placed to provide the leadership the country needs.

I don’t have all that much to add on Labour today, not least because, unless the polls, parties themselves and indeed the local and parliamentary by-elections in recent years have all been doing something very strange, there will be plenty of time for that in the coming years.

Everything I’ve seen and heard going around the country these past six weeks leads me to think the polls are about right, with the only questions being a) what the precise geographic distribution of the Conservative party’s core vote is, and what that means for its seat total and b) whether the idea that the election is a “done deal” will change the outcome.

That perception of a settled result could cause people who think the Conservative party needs to leave government, but who don’t want the party to be destroyed, or for Labour to have an unassailable majority, to return to the Tory fold. Another way it could shift dynamics is that it could boost the Greens and the half-a-dozen or so credible independents running against Labour, largely on the back of discontent at Starmer’s response to the Israel-Hamas war. Taken together, late changes owing to the perception that a Labour landslide is “inevitable” could mean a very different election result to the one suggested by the polls.

I doubt it, though. Successful election campaigns need to be big and unsubtle. Starmer removing the whip from Jeremy Corbyn and going round the country campaigning under a big red logo saying “Change” — neither of these require particular close reading.

Part of the problem with Rishi Sunak’s campaign is that almost everything he has done has required some form of close reading. With just three days to go, the Conservative campaign still has no public rationale as to why this election is happening this summer.

That is also true about his warnings against a Labour landslide: he hasn’t done anything big or unsubtle enough to really land that message among most people. As William Wallis highlights in his dispatch from Wolverhampton, an additional challenge will be counteracting widespread voter apathy and distrust in UK governments of any colour — both of which affect could turnout and outcomes in unpredictable ways.

I’m struck that the question I hear most when I travel the country is about whether the polls are wrong — the Labour landslide, if it happens, is going to come as a big shock to many people.

Sunak’s campaign oscillates wildly between warning about a Labour landslide in some interviews, and posting things such as “it’s not over until it is over” on Facebook, or telling BBC One that he will still be prime minister at the end of the week. The combined effect is to drown both messages out among all but the most informed and engaged of voters.

Now try this

I had a lovely time this weekend at Glastonbury. It was lovely to meet so many Inside Politics readers, though the highlight for me was listening to The Last Dinner Party’s new material.

Top stories today

• Fostering disappointment? | Only one in 50 people planning to vote Labour in the general election believe the party will cut public investment if it comes to power, according to fresh polling data. But the party’s current policies imply a fall in government spending in areas such as new roads, hospitals and school buildings unless there are tax rises.

• Taking on backlogs | If Labour wins the election, the party will have to confront a fragmented asylum system, including the Tory party’s flagship Rwanda scheme, while trying to make good on its pledge to reduce small boat crossings, increase returns of asylum seekers and end the use of asylum hotels. Will its policies fix the system?

• How Labour could boost trade with Europe | The Labour party has promised to improve the UK’s trading arrangements with Europe if elected on July 4, but within strict limits. Peter Foster and Andy Bounds break down the options available to Labour.

• Decision to leave | Reform UK candidate for Erewash Liam Booth-Isherwood has disowned the party and publicly backed the local Conservative candidate, the BBC reports. He said there was a “significant moral issue” in parts of the party following what he called “reports of widespread racism and sexism”.

Below is the Financial Times’ live-updating UK poll-of-polls, which combines voting intention surveys published by major British pollsters. Visit the FT poll-tracker page to discover our methodology and explore polling data by demographic including age, gender, region and more.