Will Meloni crash von der Leyen’s reappointment party?

Good morning. Will EU leaders endorse a new Brussels leadership team tonight, or will Giorgia Meloni’s wrath disrupt a centrist consensus? Details below. And our Europe editor interviews French far-right prime ministerial candidate Jordan Bardella.

Giorgia on my mind

Can Ursula von der Leyen be approved by EU leaders for another term as European Commission president without the support of Italy? That’s the gauntlet thrown down by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni today as she seeks to maximise her leverage in return for rewards.

Context: EU leaders will aim to strike agreement on von der Leyen’s second term, plus two other bloc appointments, at a summit in Brussels. Technically, only 20 of 27 states are required. A consensus is the aim.

Meloni is Europe’s hard-right figurehead. Not only prime minister of the bloc’s third-largest economy, she also heads the European parliament’s third-biggest group. Hence her rage at being excluded from a cosy cabal of six male negotiators from the three centrist parties that cooked up a deal on the bloc’s next leadership being tabled today.

Yesterday, she said that was “a mistake” and warned von der Leyen was “destined to have difficulties.”

Von der Leyen doesn’t need Meloni’s endorsement. Her centrist coalition counts at least 21 leaders. Her predecessor was nominated without unanimity.

But starting a new term without Rome’s endorsement would be a bold move, especially if it could be bought.

Meloni’s price? At the very least: a senior job in the next commission, overseeing broad economic powers, and for her political priorities to be promoted.

The surprise here is that for the past year, von der Leyen has kept Meloni close, and made her feel part of the EU’s top team. But the approach of von der Leyen’s political negotiators has been to exclude her.

People involved in preparing the negotiations last night said they are still in the dark about how Meloni and other von der Leyen critics, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, will vote.

Some officials are afraid that a separate but related decision, on agreeing the EU’s “strategic agenda” for the next five years, will serve as a proxy for their dissent: unlike the jobs decision, that needs unanimous support to pass.

“Some are playing hardball so we need to see if they are bluffing, or not,” said one official. “We still don’t have an exact assessment of where all the member states are,” they added.

Meloni might decide only in the room whether to support, abstain or vote against, said a person briefed on her thinking.

Most capitals still see a deal as today’s most likely outcome, but only after some damage has been repaired.

“Now it’s a political and personal question, so that everyone feels involved,” said an EU diplomat involved in the negotiations. The discussion would last, he added, until “the desired inclusivity has been found”.

“The greater the consensus on the jobs, the better,” said a second diplomat. “I do hope that we will get the third-largest economy on board.”

Chart du jour: Deadly heat

Temperatures across parts of southern Europe have lingered close to 40C this month, bringing a rise in heat deaths.

Threatening peace

“I don’t intend to go to war with Brussels.”

Jordan Bardella, the far-right party’s candidate for prime minister in France’s elections, was in reassurance mode in an interview with the FT yesterday, writes Ben Hall.

Context: Bardella’s Rassemblement National party leads in the polls ahead of a two-round vote that begins on Sunday.

If the RN takes power, it would seek to defend France’s interests, just like Germany or Poland, Bardella said.

If it followed through on its various promises, an RN government would soon be at loggerheads with Brussels, even if Bardella says he would negotiate the changes Paris wants (he sidestepped a question on whether he would act unilaterally if he didn’t get his way).

The RN wants to pull France out of the single market for electricity, give preferential treatment to French companies in public procurement and stop third-country nationals from moving freely around the Schengen area.

The first clash is likely to be over its demand to reduce France’s annual net contribution to the EU budget by €2bn. Such a rebate might in theory be obtainable during the inevitably fraught negotiations over the EU’s next seven-year budget plan, which runs from 2028.

The problem is that Bardella’s party has banked the money already to help pay for its top priority, which is reducing VAT on energy and fuel (for which it will also need EU approval).

“France is tightening its belt, the EU should tighten its belt too,” Bardella said. He may be waiting a while to get his money back.

What to watch today

1. EU leaders meet for two-day summit.

2. Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg meets Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.

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