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South Africa’s governing African National Congress admitted it had been “humbled” by its worst general election performance since the first post-apartheid vote 30 years ago, but that it would not be “bullied” into axing President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Though the election result has not been formally declared, with all votes counted the ANC had won just 40.2 per cent, a result that one senior party member said had sent “shockwaves” through the organisation.
The centrist Democratic Alliance came in second with 22 per cent. But the big winner was the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party launched six months ago by former president Jacob Zuma, which surged to 14.6 per cent of the vote.
Zuma, who was declared ineligible to stand for parliament due to a previous criminal conviction for contempt of court, has said MK would be willing to form a coalition with the ANC, but only if it were to ditch Ramaphosa, with whom he has a personal vendetta.
The ANC, whose top decision-making body, the National Executive Committee, will meet on Tuesday to conduct an autopsy of its poor performance and discuss coalition options, was resolute this would not happen.
“Ramaphosa is the president of the ANC,” Fikile Mbalula, its secretary-general, said at a media briefing on Sunday. “If you come to us with a demand that Ramaphosa must step down as president, that’s not going to happen.”
Of coalition talks, he said: “We will not be bullied . . . we’ll engage with everybody”.
Analysts say Ramaphosa is under intense pressure after his party suffered a worse than expected 17 percentage point fall, from the 57.5 per cent achieved in the 2019 election. This represented “a seismic shift in politics”, said law professor Richard Calland.
One party insider told the FT that the ANC needed to rebuild, which would be a “culture shock for many”. But he also said that “this talk of Cyril falling on his sword is bullshit”.
The MK party’s sudden elevation on to the national stage, based on a radical platform of scrapping the country’s constitution which was created after the end of apartheid, and nationalising mines and banks, has rattled investment markets.
Economists said the rand, which fell more than 2 per cent after the election to R18.79 to the dollar, was braced for a rocky start to the week.
Despite his party’s strong showing, Zuma has demanded a recount citing irregularities and threatened “trouble” if the Electoral Commission declared the final results as planned.
Zuma, who was president from 2009-18 during a period when the assets of the state were looted, said that would be a “provocation” for his party and 25 others that have also issued objections. Most independent analysts consider any irregularities minor. “I am hoping whoever is responsible is hearing us. Don’t start trouble when there is no trouble,” Zuma said.
Many commentators took this as ominous, given the riots that exploded across South Africa in 2021 after he was imprisoned after having refused to participate in a commission of inquiry into the corruption that raged under his presidency.
Mosotho Moepya, chair of the electoral commission, told the media that the results were uncompromised and audited.
Herman Mashaba, leader of the ActionSA party, which won 1.2 per cent of the vote, said: “After what happened in July 2021, after he was imprisoned, to use such threats is treasonous. Especially given how the ANC has treated him with kid gloves.”
Mashaba said that while there had been “glitches”, the election was free and fair. “There is no evidence otherwise,” he said.
He raised the alarm about a possible coalition between the ANC, Zuma’s MK and the radical Economic Freedom Fighters, warning the “country’s economy will collapse within six months” if it went ahead.
He said his preference was for the ANC to enter into a coalition with the DA. “The financial markets will punish us, so I hope the ANC and DA come to their senses and have sensible discussions,” he said.
Some ANC members are understood to favour a deal with MK and the radical EFF, but one Ramaphosa ally insisted they were in a minority.
“We need to put the country first,” the person said. “A majority of sensible people in the ANC will agree with that, but there’s a flip side of those in the NEC who want to create a situation where they can continue to loot. For them this is not about democracy but to create an opportunity to loot and to avoid prosecution.”