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Mexico’s presidential candidates have wrapped up a turbulent and violent campaign ahead of Sunday’s election, each claiming to be the guardian of democracy amid fierce debate over the future of the country’s political system.
Polls show that the ruling party’s Claudia Sheinbaum, a leftwing former climate scientist, has a double-digit lead over self-made businesswoman Xóchitl Gálvez in the contest to become president. The race is the most important in Mexico’s largest-ever election, when voters will also pick regional governors, a new congress and thousands of local officials.
The poll comes as the US’s largest trading partner scents opportunity to attract more investment amid Washington’s trade tensions with China. But the country is also struggling to deal with increasing violence and organised crime.
Sheinbaum, previously mayor of Mexico City, addressed supporters in the capital’s main square on Wednesday, promising to maintain the policies of her mentor, outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
“Today we have a country with less poverty, less inequality but also historic levels of foreign investment,” she said. “We strengthen democracy as power of the people, by the people, for the people.”
The campaign has been marked by violence. More than 30 candidates have been killed, including a mayoral candidate on Tuesday.
Extreme heat has also led to dozens of deaths and electricity blackouts across the country. In the capital, where polls suggest the battle for the mayoralty is much closer than the presidential race, authorities this week stepped up water rationing in several districts.
Gálvez, who closed her campaign in the northern industrial city of Monterrey, has framed her coalition as a defence against an authoritarian ruling party trying to control independent institutions such as the supreme court. She denounced the government’s health and security policies and said she would be “a president who does confront crime”.
“This government has been arrogant, overbearing, it doesn’t see and doesn’t listen,” she said in a speech in a concert arena.
The third presidential candidate, Jorge Álvarez Máynez, has performed better than expected with a campaign focused on younger voters. He is polling at about 10 per cent.
Some voters are excited that Mexico is likely to have its first female leader.
“The fact that there will now be a feminine image in a machista country where women are constantly violated, it is a good step,” said Maira Ramírez, a 22-year-old student from Mexico City.
The election is also seen as a plebiscite on the policies of López Obrador, who increased cash handouts to some social groups, built infrastructure including a new train line in the south and raised the minimum wage, helping to keep his approval ratings in the mid-60s.
In a street near Sheinbaum’s rally on Wednesday, Ruben Limón, a 52-year-old security guard from the eastern city of Puebla, said he thought López Obrador had helped poorer people and wanted more of the same.
“The paycheck goes further. The candidates of the PRI and the PAN took everything for themselves and nothing for the people,” he said of the two opposition parties.
In recent weeks Sheinbaum and Gálvez have raised questions about the electoral process.
Sheinbaum has warned her supporters to turn out to avoid electoral fraud, while Gálvez has said the president is unfairly helping his candidate and that organised crime will influence the vote, with no opposition oversight in about 4 per cent of polling stations.
Analysts said that if Sheinbaum won, as polls suggest, her path in office would be strongly influenced by her coalition’s posititon in congress.
“If Claudia wins by a lot, she’ll have few incentives to moderate . . . if the result is closer, we’ll probably hear a more conciliatory, moderate tone,” said Carlos Ramírez, a consultant at Integralia. “Come Sunday, we’ll start to get to know the real Claudia.”
