EU enlargement on the menu as leaders meet at breakfast

Receive free EU enlargement updates

We’ll send you a myFT Daily Digest email rounding up the latest EU enlargement news every morning.

Good morning. Please do find time this weekend to read this poignant piece by my colleague Anastasia Stognei, on how the Wagner mutiny brought the war to her Russian hometown of Voronezh.

EU leaders stayed up arguing about migration until around 1am this morning, as Hungary and Poland refused to agree with language accepted by all other countries. Laura has more on that after the chart. But first, Sam explains why a cosy group of EU leaders are huddling over breakfast today to talk seriously about enlargement.

Growing pains

A select group of EU leaders including France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Olaf Scholz and Mark Rutte of the Netherlands are set to meet for an informal breakfast to talk about what enlargement — including Ukraine’s potential membership — means for the union itself, writes Sam Fleming. 

Context: Enlargement of the EU will rise up the Brussels agenda later this year, as member states prepare for a report on how ready candidates including Ukraine are to join the bloc, amid big divisions among existing member states about how fast to move.

The implications of a fresh round of enlargement can hardly be understated. Beefing up the EU’s ranks to 30 or more member states from the current 27 would entail far-reaching redistribution of the EU budget, including agricultural policy and regional aid, as well as decision-making processes. 

Today’s meeting will focus on “how to manage the process of enlargement”, said one diplomat briefed on the preparations. “We have to think through what this means for the union,” said another. 

A discussion paper prepared for the meeting by the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics lists the wide range of questions member states will need to address as enlargement looms larger. 

These include how to handle decision-making and veto powers in a union of up to 36 states; the need to reallocate European parliament seats and potentially boost the number of commissioners; the likelihood that multiple net beneficiaries of the EU budget will become net contributors; and how quickly to introduce freedom of movement for citizens of the new member states. 

For enlargement to succeed, the think-tank notes, “the union must consider how it needs to change and reform itself”. 

Today’s meeting is expected to include only a cross-section of the bloc’s 27 states, but it will include both sides of the enlargement debate, including traditionally more wary states such as the Netherlands and ardent supporters such as Poland. 

The discussion will lay the ground for an informal summit in Granada, Spain, in October, where the question of how to absorb so many new members will be debated. 

Chart du jour: Model pupil

Spain has become the first leading eurozone economy to record annual inflation below the ECB’s 2 per cent target in almost two years, jarring with Germany, where price rises in the bloc’s largest economy accelerated to 6.8 per cent.

Late-night beef

After more than seven hours of debate, EU leaders last night failed to agree on common conclusions on migration policy because of a blockade by Hungary and Poland, writes Laura Dubois.

Context: EU members have fought for years about the distribution of asylum seekers. Many of the more controversial aspects were settled with a deal on asylum reform a few weeks ago, which is being negotiated with parliament. But with rising migration numbers, countries want to do more.

Most countries came into the summit optimistic, with leaders signalling broad support for drafted language referencing work on common EU migration policy and partnerships with third countries to curb migration.

But Budapest and Warsaw stamped their feet before, during and after dinner, and professed their unhappiness with the deal struck in early June, which had been approved by a qualified majority. They were the only countries that voted against.

Italy’s premier Giorgia Meloni, who despite her hardline stance on migration was satisfied with the draft text, tried to mediate between her counterparts Viktor Orbán and Mateusz Morawiecki, but to no avail.

EU leaders will continue today in search of a breakthrough, but it is unclear whether an agreement is possible. Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte said the time overnight was needed “to see if we can get conclusions or not.”

One thing everyone does seem to agree on is the need to clinch partnerships with third countries to curb migration. “There is broad-based agreement on this external question of migration,” Rutte said.

The external partnerships would include migration curbs in exchange for financial support, for instance to boost the green transition, or closer trade ties, among other things. The EU is already negotiating such a deal with Tunisia which, according to diplomats, should be signed next week.

Similar deals to the Tunisian agreement could be negotiated with other states, including Egypt, diplomats said.

What to watch today

1. Day two of EU leaders summit, in Brussels.

Now read these