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0 Tanks for nothing.
The Ukrainian government will be bitterly disappointed at its allies’ failure to agree to send a significant number of modern western tanks for its army fighting against Russian invaders. Defence ministers meeting in Ramstein, Germany on Friday signed off on plans to send heavy weaponry and ammunition, but not advanced battle tanks. Kyiv says it needs 300 of them to reclaim its territories from occupation. Some of its most ardent European allies agree that now is the moment to help Ukraine break the battlefield deadlock before Russia does.
Ukraine will receive a small contingent of British Challenger 2s. But it is Germany that matters. It is the key to a putative international coalition that could donate scores, possibly hundreds of the 2,000 German-built Leopard 2 tanks operated by 13 European armies. The Leopard is the best fit for Ukraine’s needs, but Berlin would not agree to send its own or allow other governments to do so.
Defence minister Boris Pistorius said Germany would start to assess how many of its Leopards were combat-ready in preparation “for the day that might well come” when Berlin says yes. It was the least he could do, given the woeful state of some of Germany’s military equipment. It gives Kyiv hope that German chancellor Olaf Scholz will eventually acquiesce — as he has in regard to other weaponry. But it is far from certain.
Sending tanks to kill Russians in Ukraine is obviously a difficult decision for a German chancellor given the country’s dark history. It is not popular with the German public although it is supported by the other main political parties. Scholz seems more worried about the risks of escalation and the danger of Russia lashing out, dragging Germany and Nato into the conflict. He insists that Germany will not send Leopards unless the US sends its Abrams. If Russia has explicitly threatened Berlin, it is not just American political cover he is seeking but its protection.
Washington could ease Scholz’s agony by sending Ukraine a token contingent of American tanks. It has refused to do so, saying they are too hard for Ukraine to maintain. The Biden administration also worries about escalation risk and has calibrated its military support to Ukraine accordingly. It seems to harbour doubts about Ukraine’s ability to put tanks to good use. Speaking at Ramstein, US defence secretary Lloyd Austin suggested infantry fighting vehicles and other armour were more important to Ukraine “to be successful in the near term”.
Whatever Washington’s misgivings, it is Scholz who will take the flak from his coalition partners, domestic opponents and European allies for his indecision. Germany has provided Ukraine with a large amount of weaponry — some if it state of the art — but gets little credit. Germany is Europe’s indispensable power but Scholz is not inclined to lead from the front.
