Former television doctor Mehmet Oz and Pennsylvania lieutenant-governor John Fetterman will share the stage on Tuesday night for their first and only debate ahead of next month’s US midterm elections, in a closely watched Senate race that is likely to prove pivotal in determining whether Democrats or Republicans control the upper chamber.
The Pennsylvania race is one of a handful of contests across the country that non-partisan analysts see as a true “toss-up” heading into election day on November 8. Pennsylvania has long been seen as a crucial swing state and a bellwether of the national mood. Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in the state in the 2020 presidential election by a razor-thin margin of just over one point.
For much of this year, Fetterman, an outspoken progressive Democratic candidate who gained national recognition in the aftermath of the 2020 election for his pushback against Trump’s false claims of voter fraud in Pennsylvania, had been seen as the frontrunner against Oz.
Over the summer, several opinion polls gave the one-time mayor of Braddock — a working-class Pittsburgh suburb — a double-digit lead over Oz, a political novice but nationally known daytime television personality, who clinched the Republican party’s nomination in the state with Trump’s support.
But recent opinion polls have shown the race tightening, with support for Fetterman waning and Oz on the ascent. The Real Clear Politics average of the latest opinion polls shows Fetterman leading Oz by just 2.2 points, within the margin of error.
Fetterman’s campaign was hindered over the summer after the candidate suffered a stroke in May. While his team published a letter last week from the candidate’s primary care doctor saying the lieutenant-governor “has no work restrictions an can work full duty in public office”, the Oz campaign has amplified questions over the Democrat’s fitness for office.
A television interview earlier this month with NBC News proved divisive after it showed Fetterman relying on closed captioning technology to understand a reporter’s questions. Similar closed captioning is expected to be used in Tuesday night’s debate.
Beyond raising questions about Fetterman’s health, Oz’s campaign has echoed national Republican talking points, with a heavy emphasis on the economy, inflation, crime and law and order.
The Fetterman campaign has worked to paint Oz as a fraud, pointing to pseudoscience that the retired cardiothoracic surgeon peddled on his long-running daytime TV show.
Fetterman has also repeatedly tied Oz to Trump, as well as Doug Mastriano, the far-right Republican candidate for governor in Pennsylvania who has stoked controversy with his references to QAnon and participation in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol.
The latest Real Clear Politics average shows Mastriano trailing his Democratic opponent, Josh Shapiro, by more than 10 points, suggesting a significant share of voters may intend to “ticket split” in the state, voting Shapiro for governor and Oz for Senate.