Which NFL coaches are on the hot seat? As the Jets showed, it’s about the owners

Former New York Jets coach Eric Mangini had a prescient read on team owner Woody Johnson before a Week 5 defeat in London precipitated coach Robert Saleh’s firing Tuesday.

The way Mangini saw things, Johnson’s status as a former U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom raised the stakes for what otherwise might have been just another international game against a non-conference opponent.

“This is a absolute must-win,” Mangini said on Fox’s “First Things First”. “All of his buddies are going to be over there, and after eating tea and crumpets, he is going to want to be talking about his team and how successful they are.”

The 23-17 defeat to a Minnesota Vikings team featuring former Jets quarterback Sam Darnold became the tipping point for Johnson, whose firing of Saleh following a 2-3 start is still reverberating.

The move was a reminder that team owners can make major changes for any reason, especially when frustrated. Mangini, who coached the Jets from 2006 to 2008, knew where the tipping point could be for his former boss.

We frequently hear about coaches on the hot seat, but these are ownership situations as much as they are coaching situations.

Categorizing Johnson’s Jets and nine other notable situations can bring clarity to evaluation.

Johnson’s Jets, Mark Davis’ Las Vegas Raiders, Jimmy and Dee Haslam’s Cleveland Browns, David Tepper’s Carolina Panthers and Shad Khan’s Jacksonville Jaguars fit into the first bucket, as sub-.500 owners navigating tricky situations. Five other owners fit into different categories.

Included for each owner:

• Win percentage since purchasing the franchise
• Where that win percentage ranks among all owners
• A list of coaches and interim coaches each owner named to those roles (inherited coaches excluded)

Losing owners in tricky situations

These teams’ owners rank among the NFL’s worst in win rate. They’ve endured tumultuous seasons already and should be watched closely.

Woody Johnson, Jets | 117-122 (.434, 23rd)

Losing to the Darnold-quarterbacked Vikings in London was one part of the equation. The New York Giants upsetting Seattle on the road could have been another part of it.

“I also think Woody’s rivalry with the Giants was a factor,” an exec from another team said. “With the Giants going to Seattle and getting a big win while the Jets struggled again, Woody can’t lose the back page (of the tabloids) to the Giants. Not when you’ve got Aaron Rodgers and they’ve got Daniel Jones.”

No Jets coach has been above .500 for his tenure with the team since Week 9 of 2016, when Todd Bowles was 13-12-1. New interim coach Jeff Ulbrich can change that against Buffalo on Monday night.

Firing a coach after a 2-3 start to the season is without recent precedent.

“For some of these owners, the team is a toy and you are just a pawn,” another exec said.

Mark Davis, Las Vegas Raiders | 87-125 (.410, 26th)

Antonio Pierce is the Raiders’ fourth coach in four seasons, counting interim coaches. The team is 2-3 in his first full season on the job, so there should be no panic, but the Raiders have already benched starting quarterback Gardner Minshew, and they are exploring trade destinations for their unhappy No. 1 receiver, Davante Adams.

It’s tough to find a guiding set of principles for Davis beyond his loyalty to players, current and past. He promoted Pierce from interim status to the full-time role after players lobbied hard for their coach (Pro Bowl defensive end Maxx Crosby said he wanted to remain with the team, but “if we go in another direction, there is nothing that is off the table.”) Davis has also solicited hiring advice from long-ago Raiders figures such as Ken Herock, who played for the team in the 1960s and worked in their front office in the 1970s.

Decisions can sometimes seem to be made from emotion or on the advice of whoever happens to have Davis’ ear.

“There’s no question Mark Davis thinks about his team differently than Woody Johnson thinks about his,” an exec said. “Davis grew up around the team and thinks he knows football because of what his dad (the late Raiders founder, Al Davis) taught him. He is so former-player-oriented.”

Davis reportedly regretted not promoting interim coach Rich Bisaccia to the full-time role following Jon Gruden’s firing, which then impacted his decision to promote Pierce from interim status. Hiring the unusually inexperienced Pierce precipitated the decision to hire Tom Telesco as GM, because Telesco had experience in the role.

Has there been a major football-related decision made purely on the merits, as the result of a fundamentally sound process?

Execs question whether there is anyone in the organization who possesses great expertise and feels free to tell Davis what he needs to hear.

“The Raiders have for years been an organization of ‘yes’ men,” one exec said.

What will be the impetus for the next major decision?

Jimmy and Dee Haslam, Cleveland Browns | 70-122-1 (.365, 29th)

A case can be made that the Browns have a good GM in Andrew Berry and a good coach in Kevin Stefanski, a two-time NFL Coach of the Year, but the organizational gymnastics required to stay the course with Deshaun Watson at quarterback could undermine everything.

The Browns are 1-4 this season largely because Watson hasn’t been able to elevate them. His EPA per pass play ranks 618th out of 621 quarterbacks who started the first five games of a season since 2000. It’s not helping that former Cleveland quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Joe Flacco have flourished elsewhere.

The Haslams’ willingness to give Berry and Stefanski contract extensions before the season suggests ownership led the push to acquire Watson and pay him a fully guaranteed $230 million contract, or that all parties were confident the situation would play out favorably.

Some kind of reckoning would seem to be coming unless the quarterback production improves. But with the Browns proceeding as though everything is going to plan — extending contracts, sticking with Watson — there are no indications anything is amiss.

David Tepper, Carolina Panthers | 32-72 (.308, 31st)

Tepper has changed coaches so frequently since purchasing the team in 2018 that anything seems possible at any time, until there’s greater consistency over an extended period.

The Panthers, like most of the teams in this bucket, have made major decisions that qualified as one-offs.

The Browns gave Watson a contract no other team seemed willing to give him. The Jets indulged Rodgers to a degree others might not have at this stage of the quarterback’s career. The Raiders and Panthers hired head coaches other teams did not consider to be serious candidates (Canales had no other interviews, while Tennessee conducted a virtual interview with Pierce, his only outside interview, before the Raiders promoted him to the full-time role).

If Tepper hired Canales partly to develop Bryce Young, what are the implications of Young lasting only two games in the lineup before Carolina benched him?

Shad Khan, Jacksonville Jaguars | 62-141 (.305, 32nd)

Beating Indianapolis in Week 5 following an 0-4 start eased some of the pressure in Jacksonville, where Khan announced sky-high expectations for the team in August, calling this the best team in franchise history. The slow start following a 1-5 finish to last season dropped coach Doug Pederson’s record with the Jaguars below .500, inviting questions about his future. A poor Week 6 performance against Chicago in London could undo whatever was gained by beating Indy.

Khan generally has not made impulsive decisions, however. He is generally well-regarded in NFL circles for his efforts to keep the Jaguars in a challenging market, punctuated by a $1.4 billion stadium agreement with the city.

“Of all of them in this group, Shad is the one who is the most reasonable and logical,” an exec said. “I don’t think of Jacksonville as dysfunctional. (Khan) just hasn’t figured out how to win at football. I think it’s more abnormal that he hasn’t figured it out, whereas some of these guys never will.”

Jacksonville’s 61 victories since Khan purchased the team in 2012 are 10 fewer than the total for any other team (the Browns and Jets are next with 71 apiece since then; Kansas City leads with 135.) Much hinges on whether the team’s recent $275 million deal with quarterback Trevor Lawrence pays off.

Super Bowl-winning owners with Super Bowl coaches, but …

These teams’ owners have successful legacies. Their current coaches rank among the NFL’s best in win rate. But dynamics at play make these situations unusual.

Jerry Jones, Dallas Cowboys | 315-253 (.555, 11th)

Two consecutive victories helped Dallas recover from a 1-2 start, but coach Mike McCarthy’s status is going to be a leading storyline regardless.

Jones’ willingness to let McCarthy play out his contract after the coach posted the NFL’s fourth-best record (42-25, .625) through his first four seasons is the reason why.

“Jerry has led the charge that teams are firing coaches with dead money when they should be willing to let guys just play it out,” an exec said.

Jeffrey Lurie, Philadelphia Eagles | 271-213-3 (.560, 10th)

Philly’s 1-5 finish to last season led the Eagles to overhaul coach Nick Sirianni’s staff, putting pressure on him this season despite his excellent record and 2022 NFC title-winning season. Philly’s 2-2 start to the season, followed by a bye week, hasn’t changed much.

“I don’t think Sirianni is going anywhere unless they really fall off or they think they can get Bill Belichick,” an exec said. “Otherwise, a change makes them look dysfunctional.”

Stable owners with sub-.500 coaches they’d like to keep

These teams’ coaches are in their third seasons on the job and have shown some proficiency in their areas of expertise, but they have losing records overall. Their owners generally appear patient.

Gayle Benson, New Orleans Saints | 65-39 (.625, 2nd)

The Saints rank eighth in defensive EPA per play since Dennis Allen took over and are coming off a 9-8 season, but they’ve lost three straight and now will be without starting quarterback Derek Carr indefinitely.

Benson took over the Saints after Tom Benson, her husband since 2004, died in 2018. She has generally kept a low profile regarding her expectations for the team.

The Saints are five games into a major philosophical shift on offense and now will proceed with rookie fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler behind center.

Virginia McCaskey, Chicago Bears | 330-324 (.505, 13th)

The Bears rank third in defensive EPA per play since coach Matt Eberflus took over defensive play calling in Week 3 last season. They are 10-10 since then after going 3-16 under Eberflus previously. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams’ development is now the key variable in Chicago, where Kevin Warren’s opinion has mattered most since he replaced Ted Phillips as team president in January 2023.

Williams’ recent improvement has quieted the public conversation surrounding Eberflus and the Bears.

John Mara, New York Giants | 142-163-1 (.466, 21st)

The Giants’ participation in HBO’s “Hard Knocks: Offseason” made clear Mara’s unhappiness with losing running back Saquon Barkley to the Eagles in free agency. It also revealed that the Giants considered drafting a quarterback before sticking with Daniel Jones as the hopeful long-term starter.

Brian Daboll did not play a prominent role in the HBO series, but this is an important season for him after a rough 2023 featuring staff turmoil and a 6-11 record.

Jones’ improved play of late and solid contributions from the Giants’ rookie draft class helped the team win two of its past three, which maybe wasn’t the best thing for Saleh, all things considered.

Note: Mara took over as owner for his late father in 2005, one year after Tom Coughlin’s hiring. That explains why Coughlin isn’t listed among the coaches Mara hired.

(Photo of Woody Johnson: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)