The Wild Card Round has ended and the stage is set for the National League Division Series, which features not one but two storied rivalries — Mets–Phillies and Dodgers–Padres. If the regular season match-ups are any indication, the Phillies and Mets battle could be a slugfest. The two teams almost split the regular-season head-to-head, though the Phillies have the slight edge, 7-6. The Padres may have finished five games behind the Dodgers in the NL West standings, but they hold the regular-season advantage over the No. 1 seed, 8-5.
As everyone knows, the postseason is a different animal. Anything can happen. Here, our experts tried their best to predict an outcome.
Note: Playoff seed in brackets.
New York Mets (6) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (2)
| Team | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
|
73.3% |
|
|
26.7% |
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Stephen J. Nesbitt (Philadelphia): The argument for the Mets is entirely ~vibes~ based, which actually makes it incredibly difficult not to pick them. I want to write about Mets magic. Badly. I have seen miracles. But the Phillies are stinkin’ good. They have not played great ball in the second half, but they remain the most well-rounded team in the tournament. This core has been here before. They’re used to the spotlight on these chilly October nights. And they have some absolute dogs in the pitching staff, from Zack Wheeler on back to Orion Kerkering, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez in the Philly ‘pen.
Andy McCullough (Philadelphia): It’s hard to pick against the Mets, but someone has to do it.
Andrew Baggarly (New York): I picked the Phillies to win the World Series. So if I am concerned with being consistent and intellectually honest, then I obviously have to pick them to win this round. I also can’t get that catchy “OMG” song out of my head.
Zack Meisel (Philadelphia): It’s the Phillies’ moment. They’ll leave the Mets grimacing. (Get it? Sorry.)
Sahadev Sharma (Philadelphia): Mets magic ends, Phils are deeper in every area.
Jen McCaffrey (Philadelphia): It’s hard to bet against the Mets at this point but the Phillies are too deep on all fronts. This series feels destined for a Game 5.
Patrick Mooney (Philadelphia): This feels like a bonus round for the Mets.
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Sam Blum (New York): Two years ago it was the Phillies. Last year, it was the Diamondbacks. This postseason format seems to encourage a Cinderella run. The Mets look like that team this year.
Eno Sarris (Philadelphia): The Phillies should be better in every phase of the game, but damn those Mets vibes are strong.
Katie Woo (New York): Nearly every available stat leads me to pick Philadelphia. Their rotation is better than New York’s, as is their bullpen. Citizens Bank Park is one the most intimidating visiting venues in sports. And yet, the Mets keep winning in ways that defy logic and reason. Why stop now?
Keith Law (Philadelphia): No disrespect to Grimace, but the Phillies are the stronger team in just about every aspect, and they bring much better starting pitching than the Brewers had.
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Kaitlyn McGrath (Philadelphia): I picked the Phillies to win the World Series, so I have to ride or die with them. The Mets have momentum, but the Phillies are the deeper team and I think their layoff will prove to be an advantage over a Mets team that’s played a lot of baseball lately.
C. Trent Rosecrans (Philadelphia): It almost feels as if Zack Wheeler gives the Phillies a one-game lead to start the series and that’s always tough to overcome.
Melissa Lockard (Philadelphia): The Mets have a magical feel but the Phillies were built for the postseason. Third time should be the charm for this core.
Noah Furtado (New York): Mets magic, continued.
The Dodgers may be the No. 1 seed, but they’re not the majority of our experts’ pick. (Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
San Diego Padres (4) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)
| Team | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
|
20% |
|
|
80% |
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Stephen J. Nesbitt (San Diego): The Dodgers rotation is suspect. There, I said it! Deeply suspect! I happen to think starting pitching matters in October, and I still find that category to undeniably lean in San Diego’s direction, even with Joe Musgrove injured. Listen, this is going to be a super fun series. Both lineups are potent. The bullpens can lock down leads. (And they’ll be asked to do heavy lifting.) But the Padres played the Dodgers well this season, going 8-5 head-to-head, and I think they stay hot in this series.
Andy McCullough (Los Angeles): The Padres may have the more complete team, but the Dodgers have star power. Specifically: Shohei Ohtani.
Andrew Baggarly (San Diego): Padres in 4. (For entertainment purposes only and intended for users 18 years or older.)
Zack Meisel (San Diego): A short series and a bunch of off-days is a perfect setup for a loaded Padres pen.
Sahadev Sharma (San Diego): A little concerned about Musgrove, but still like the Dads to take this.
Jen McCaffrey (Los Angeles): The Dodgers have been beat up all year and still found ways to win.
Patrick Mooney (San Diego): San Diego’s bullpen and timely hitting should frustrate an opponent that will be feeling all the pressure.
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Sam Blum (San Diego): The Dodgers might be the best team in baseball during the regular season, but their pitching situation is far from postseason-ready. This could be another quick playoff exit in Los Angeles.
Eno Sarris (San Diego): The Padres can bang with the Dodgers bats, and have a better pitching staff.
Katie Woo (San Diego): The Dodgers-Padres rivalry is real. Facing the three-headed dragon of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman is daunting, but these Padres don’t scare. Pitching matters here too, and the Padres have the upper hand, even with Joe Musgrove injured. Dylan Cease is a legit ace and Michael King is a budding star. Jack Flaherty has helped bulk up the Dodgers rotation, but starting pitching has been the biggest concern for Los Angeles all season. They’ve done a nice job patching up their rotation in the regular season, but flaws get exposed quickly in October.
Keith Law (San Diego): The Dodgers were the better team over the course of the regular season, but they’re not bringing the healthier roster into this series, and I’m not confident in any of their starting pitchers. Meanwhile, the Padres at least get to begin the series with Cease and Darvish, and may be able to skate around the loss of Joe Musgrove in a 5-game set.
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Kaitlyn McGrath (San Diego): I’m choosing the Padres for vibes only. They actually topped the Dodgers 8-5 in season series. They cruised through their Wild Card Series win over the Braves and they look like a team ready to do something special this postseason.
C. Trent Rosecrans (San Diego): The biggest question is how the Dodgers will cover their innings. It’ll be difficult and the Padres have the bats to take advantage of that uncertainty.
Melissa Lockard (San Diego): The Padres may be short Joe Musgrove, but their pitching is still healthier than the Dodgers and the lineup is clicking.
Noah Furtado (Los Angeles): I think this one will go all five games. Both teams are comparably talented, though the Padres probably have the more complete roster. But I’m taking the Dodgers in Game 5 at Dodger Stadium.
(Top photo: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)