In difficult times during the regular season, New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone often remarked that the team’s path to the playoffs remained wide open, saying, “it’s right in front of us.”
The same can now be said of the American League title.
After 14 years of wandering through the October desert, the Yankees have stumbled onto an oasis. Or maybe the upsets of the Baltimore Orioles and especially the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Series are more like a baseball parting of the Red Sea.
The Yankees suddenly loom as favorites to capture their first AL title since 2009, the year they last won the World Series. Boone might not say it out of respect for the competition, but yes, it’s right in front of them. The Yankees will have no excuses if they cannot survive an AL field that includes three Central clubs with payrolls approximately one-third of their own.
Of course, big-money teams don’t always prevail, not in the regular season, not in short postseason series. The Astros, fielding a payroll more than double that of the Detroit Tigers, got swept at home. The Yankees’ Division Series opponent, the Kansas City Royals, features the likely AL MVP runner-up, Bobby Witt Jr., and two potential top-five finishers in the AL Cy Young voting, Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo. The other AL team with the bye, the Cleveland Guardians, won only two fewer games than the Yankees during the regular season.
Think Yankees fans want to hear it?
The Yankees are mostly healthy. They feature two of the game’s biggest stars, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. And no longer must they deal with the Astros, who defeated them in the ALCS in 2017, 2019 and 2022, going a combined 8-1 at Minute Maid Park.
Yes, the 2017 triumph occurred during a postseason in which the Astros stole signs illegally, but in four games at Minute Maid, the Yankees scored three runs. Some Yankees fans would like to believe the 2019 ALCS also was tainted, but the Jose Altuve buzzer controversy was never proven to be anything more than a social media creation. And in 2022, the Astros swept the Yankees in four straight, erasing any doubt about their superiority once and for all.
This season was shaping up as more of the same. An eighth straight ALCS appearance by the Astros – and fourth showdown with the Yankees – looked quite possible. The Orioles are 15-11 against the Yankees the past two years but did not appear a serious threat, fading for months, scoring only one run in two games against the Royals. The Astros, once again, figured to be another matter.
After starting the season 12-24, Houston rallied to finish 76-49 and win its fourth straight AL West title and seventh in the past eight years, the only exception coming in the shortened 2020 season. But after its shocking loss to the Tigers, a team that sold at the trade deadline and has virtually no starting rotation beyond AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal, the end of the Astros’ dominance finally might be near.
Third basemen Alex Bregman seems likely to depart as a free agent. Right fielder Kyle Tucker and left-hander Framber Valdez are eligible to hit the open market after next season. The Athletic’s Keith Law in February ranked the Astros’ farm system 27th out of 30 – and at the deadline, the team traded three young players for left-hander Yusei Kikuchi.
The Astros owe a combined $32 million in 2025 to first baseman José Abreu and reliever Rafael Montero, two players they signed while owner Jim Crane was operating without a general manager, then released in the second year of three-year deals. The return of Justin Verlander at last year’s deadline cost the team Top 100 prospects outfielder Drew Gilbert and outfielder/first baseman Ryan Clifford. Verlander, since rejoining the team, had a 4.55 ERA in 28 starts.
The Yankees’ foundation is not exactly solid, either, not with Soto unsigned beyond this season. That’s why it’s incumbent upon this team to seize the moment. The Orioles and Astros had the third- and fourth-best records in the AL, respectively. And now they are gone.
Mind you, the Yankees are far from flawless. Their rotation of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt might be as good as any remaining in the postseason. But their bullpen will require deft managing by Boone. Their offense led the AL and ranked third in the majors in runs, but beyond Judge and Soto, the combined OPS of their hitters was a Miami Marlins-like .676. The team also is prone to sloppiness at times, both on the bases and in the field.
Likewise, the Central teams warrant more respect than they received playing in the same division as the Chicago White Sox, whose 121 losses were the most in AL/NL history. True, the Royals were 12-1 and the Tigers 10-3 against the White Sox, while the Guardians were a mere 8-5. True, none of those teams boast strong offenses – the Royals ranked 13th in the majors in runs, the Guardians 14th, the Tigers tied for 19th. Each, though, has shown a certain pluckiness, a knack for winning. Witt Jr. and the Guardians’ José Ramírez, like Judge and Soto, are top-10 players in the sport.
Underrated as the competition might be, Yankees fans won’t settle for another October collapse, not when the Yankees’ payroll is $302 million, compared to $114 million for the Royals, $104 million for the Tigers and $103 million for the Guardians. (Two Tigers players earning a combined $39 million, shortstop Javier Báez and righty Kenta Maeda, are not even on the team’s postseason roster.)
Could the Yankees have asked for anything more than the early eliminations of two of their biggest rivals? Call it an oasis. Call it a baseball parting of the Red Sea. But enough about water. For the Yankees, the American League playoffs had better end in champagne.
(Top photo of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton: Luke Hales/Getty Images)