The Athletic has live coverage of the MLB Wild Card Series.
In baseball, the most difficult defeats to explain are the ones you don’t see coming.
“That’s a good question,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said last autumn when asked why his historically prolific offense, the driving force behind a 104-victory team, failed to deliver in the National League Division Series against the Phillies.
“Shock factor — very high,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said after his 111-win club crashed out in four games to the 89-win Padres in the 2022 National League Division Series. “The great thing about baseball is the unpredictability,” he added. “And the tough thing about it is the same thing.”
“You come in riding the high of a tremendous regular season,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said after his 100-win group fell to the Red Sox in the 2021 American League Division Series, “and we just couldn’t get it figured out against Boston.”
Even before the Major League Baseball postseason expanded to 12 entrants in 2022, the tournament featured plenty of randomness. Executives have long lamented the cruelty of a 162-game marathon turning into a series of sprints. At season’s end, they are often left attempting to process how their finely assembled rosters, so dominant all spring and summer, can be upended so suddenly when the calendar turns to autumn.
That won’t happen in 2024.
For the first time since 2014, no club won 100 games. There are no juggernauts, no super teams, no clear favorites. All of the top seeds have dealt with extended slumps, serious injuries and a fair share of existential dread. The Dodgers lack depth in their rotation and the Yankees lack depth in their lineup. The Phillies played .500 ball in the second half. The Guardians … we’ll get to them shortly.
And the wild cards, especially in the National League, look deeper and more dangerous than in previous years. Every team in the postseason is dealing with major flaws, problems that are not hard to spot. This October may be defined by which team can overcome their most glaring deficiency.
Don’t think of this as a bug. Think of this as a feature. There might not be outrageous upsets. But there should still be riveting theater.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the 12 finalists and their biggest concerns.
American League
1. New York Yankees
Record: 94-68
Pythagorean record: 96-66
Fatal flaw: To quote Luis Severino, “you only have two good hitters.”
The former Yankee delivered a succinct but devastating scouting report before a Subway Series matchup this summer. Of course, you do not need Gene Michael’s keen eye to recognize that a disproportionate amount of the team’s offensive production stems from Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Judge is the best hitter in the sport and Soto is not far behind. The rest of the lineup is far less threatening. The former All-Stars look creaky and the youngsters haven’t caught fire. Austin Wells, the talented rookie catcher, went cold in September. Giancarlo Stanton, the decorated slugger, remains dangerous but strikeout-prone. Anthony Rizzo, the veteran first baseman, broke two fingers in the season’s final weekend. There are other concerns about the roster — injuries and fatigue in the starting rotation, a not-insignificant number of relievers who don’t miss bats, regular missteps while running the bases, an ongoing quandary in left field — but if Judge and Soto don’t produce, it’s hard to envision the Yankees ending that World Series drought this autumn.
2. Cleveland Guardians
Record: 92-69
Pythagorean record: 90-71
Fatal flaw: Imagine what Luis Severino would say about this lineup.
No division winner scored fewer runs this season than the Guardians, who also produced less offense in 2024 than also-rans like the Cubs, Red Sox and Twins. The elite Cleveland bullpen can only hold a lead if the offense puts runs on the board. That places a significant burden on the hitters at the top of the lineup. Rookie manager Stephen Vogt recently shifted another rookie, Kyle Manzardo, into the No. 2 spot. There will be a ton of pressure on the veterans surrounding Manzardo — Steven Kwan, José Ramírez and Josh Naylor — because the lineup drops off after that quartet.
3. Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez’s knee may dictate how the Astros’ postseason goes. (Tim Warner / Getty Images)
Record: 88-73
Pythagorean record: 90-71
Fatal flaw: Yordan Alvarez is nursing a knee injury
The Astros are not inevitable, but they are pretty darn likely. Even after a sluggish start to 2024, the group rallied to capture the American League West. The team has reached the ALCS in seven consecutive seasons and the gang is still here. Most of the protagonists are characters from postseasons past. Josh Hader is in the bullpen now and the rotation features a new cast but some of the championship core remains: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez. And, of course, Alvarez, who has been a nightmare for opposing pitchers since his debut in 2019. Alvarez tends to show up in October, which renders his recent knee sprain problematic for Houston. Alvarez is unlikely to miss any games. But if he cannot produce at his usual level, the offense will miss him.
4. Baltimore Orioles
Record: 91-71
Pythagorean record: 90-72
Fatal flaw: How much time do you have?
A year after winning 101 games and the American League East, the Orioles underperformed expectations despite an excellent season from second-year shortstop Gunnar Henderson and a strong platform campaign from free-agent-to-be pitcher Corbin Burnes. A landslide of arm injuries wrecked the rotation in the first half. The team stumbled throughout the second half. The Craig Kimbrel experiment backfired. Adley Rutschman’s production dipped. Jackson Holliday has yet to take off. Jorge Mateo could not make it back from elbow surgery. A lat injury will keep Grayson Rodriguez from pitching in October. The roster still has plenty of young talent. But the group has played sluggish baseball for months. Can they flip the switch?
5. Detroit Tigers
Record: 86-76
Pythagorean record: 85-77
Fatal flaw: They don’t get on base and they don’t hit the ball over the fence.
If you wrote off the Tigers this summer, don’t be too hard on yourself. They wrote themselves off, too. A couple days after trading No. 2 starter Jack Flaherty, Detroit could boast only a 0.2 percent chance of reaching the postseason, according to FanGraphs. But a funny thing happened on the way to a middling season: Detroit caught fire and Minnesota collapsed. A.J. Hinch rode his bullpen hard to get to this point, with the team going 31-24 in one-run games. Can the magic continue into October? It will be tough if they don’t score. The Tigers finished the regular season with a teamwide .300 on-base percentage, tied with Miami for the second-worst mark in the sport. No Tiger besides Riley Greene hit more than 18 homers. The team will require an extra dose of grit to keep the party going.
6. Kansas City Royals
Record: 86-76
Pythagorean record: 91-71
Fatal flaw: They won’t be playing the Chicago White Sox.
No team benefited more from the historic incompetence on the South Side than the Royals. Kansas City went 12-1 against the White Sox and 74-75 against the rest of the sport. That cushion kept them upright despite two separate seven-game losing streaks in the season’s final weeks. The offense went quiet in those periods. Outside of absolute sensation Bobby Witt Jr. and veteran backstop Salvador Perez, the lineup features few threats. The team would be thrilled if first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino can recover from a broken thumb and play on Tuesday. The margin for error for the team’s starting trio of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Cole Ragans will still be thin.
National League
Tyler Glasnow was supposed to play a significant postseason role for the Dodgers. Instead, he’s one of many arms on the shelf. (Harry How / Getty Images)
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 98-64
Pythagorean record: 96-66
Fatal flaw: Rotation, rotation, rotation.
The Dodgers enter October in a familiar position. They hold a top seed and their rotation is worrisome. Jack Flaherty’s fastball velocity has dropped in his last two starts. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has not pitched past the fifth inning since returning from a shoulder injury in September. Walker Buehler showed some championship mettle in his last outing, but still finished the season with a 5.38 ERA. Injuries to Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan may force Landon Knack into a more prominent role. The Dodgers have a quality bullpen and a ferocious offense. They will need each unit to bring its best. Put it this way: If the Dodgers win the World Series, it might take a bunch of 7-5 victories.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 95-67
Pythagorean record: 92-70
Fatal flaw: The lineup got banged up and cooled off in the season’s second half.
After peaking in October for the past two seasons, Philadelphia may have peaked too soon in 2024. The Phillies played at a 104-win pace before the All-Star break, but started to waver soon after. Alec Bohm posted an .830 OPS in the first half and a .681 OPS afterward. Trea Turner put up an .687 OPS after the break. Brandon Marsh took his own dip. Bryce Harper hit 21 homers in the first half and nine in the second as he dealt with irritation in his right wrist and a surgically repaired right elbow. Kyle Schwarber hyper-extended his elbow in September. In all, the club has looked a lot less formidable since August.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 93-69
Pythagorean record: 95-67
Fatal flaw: Their pitchers give up too many flyballs.
On the surface, Milwaukee’s run-prevention unit looks as strong as usual, finishing the season ranked fifth in the sport in ERA. Under the hood, though, there is reason for concern. The team finished in the middle of the pack in fielding-independent ERA and strikeout rate. So their staff allows hitters to put the ball in play, and many of their pitchers profile as flyball guys. That can be worrisome against elite competition. Freddy Peralta, Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale are all homer-prone. Losing Sal Frelick, a strong fielder in right field, for the Wild Card Series will hamper their elite outfield defense. The good news for Milwaukee is that in the form of Willy Adames, William Contreras and Jackson Chourio, the team has some hitters who can counteract short-sequence strikes from the opposition.
4. San Diego Padres
Record: 93-69
Pythagorean record: 90-72
Fatal flaw: They didn’t win the National League West.
To some executives and evaluators, the Padres might be the most complete team in the tournament. The offense is deep, offers a diversity of approach and contains star power in the form of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. The rotation boasts four dudes capable of missing bats and subduing good lineups. A.J. Preller improved the bullpen at the trade deadline by adding Jason Adam and Tanner Scott to a group headlined by Robert Suarez and Adrián Morejón. This team is legit. The only problem is they peaked too late to run down the Dodgers, who took a crucial series last week at Chavez Ravine to wrap up another division crown. So San Diego must aim for a World Series the hard way, flipping the proverbial weighted coin in a three-game Wild Card Series which would earn them another shot at the Dodgers. The Padres do not fear their northern rivals — San Diego went 8-5 against them in 2024 — but they would enter that series facing some challenges, lacking home field advantage and having used their pitchers to escape the opening round.
5. Atlanta Braves
Record: 89-73
Pythagorean record: 92-70
Fatal flaw: The injuries just won’t stop.
Atlanta played this entire season without young ace Spencer Strider. They lost Ronald Acuña Jr. in May. Austin Riley broke his hand in August. And Chris Sale, the presumptive National League Cy Young award favorite, has not pitched since Sept. 19, and could not answer the bell for a decisive Game 162 against the Mets because of back spasms. Yet here the Braves are. Who knows what shape they will be in when the club arrives in San Diego for the Wild Card Series on Tuesday? The lineup is pocked with holes. After Max Fried, who will be available to start? Sale is questionable. Spencer Schwellenbach logged seven innings on Monday. Reynaldo López appeared in relief in Game 162. The combination of injuries and exhaustion looks daunting.
6. New York Mets
Record: 89-73
Pythagorean record: 88-74
Fatal flaw: Their relievers don’t throw strikes.
The Mets have a few things working in their favor. Their offense is potent. They have co-opted the chillest denizen of McDonaldland as a mascot. Their second baseman is a budding pop star. The group should be commended for providing their fans with a delightful summer — because their bullpen might not have what it takes to last deep into October. The group entered Monday’s doubleheader tied for the third-worst relief walk rate in the sport. After throwing 66 pitches in 24 hours, Edwin Díaz may not be available in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. And he may not be able to throw a multi-inning stint in the opening round. That means rookie manager Carlos Mendoza will need to utilize a motley group of walk-prone relievers to advance. It won’t be easy. But neither was rallying from a 24-33 record at the beginning of June.
(Top photo of Soto and Judge: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)