Paul Skenes Ks Juan Soto, Aaron Judge to cap most dominant rookie pitching season in 50 years

NEW YORK — As a two-strike fastball from Paul Skenes whizzed toward him, New York Yankees slugger Juan Soto read it as a ball and began backing off the plate. At a time when almost anything is debatable, there’s an overwhelming consensus that Soto has the best eye of any batter in baseball. This time, he had been duped. Soto jerked his front elbow out of harm’s way. But the Pittsburgh Pirates’ rookie phenom had painted a 100 mph heater on the black.

Skenes struck out three in an abbreviated start Saturday, and each was its own chef’s kiss. Seeing Soto and Aaron Judge for the first time since starting the All-Star Game, Skenes caught Soto looking and whirled a sweeper past Judge’s bat for strike three. Then, for the last out of his rookie season, Skenes dispatched Jazz Chisholm Jr. the same way he had Soto, with a triple-digit fastball cutting back onto the inside corner for strike three.

“When you’re able to execute to your arm side with fastballs,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said, “that puts you in a different category.”

This was the final pitch of Paul Skenes’ rookie season …

Absolutely incredible pic.twitter.com/sWmIMmvkE4

— MLB (@MLB) September 28, 2024

The 22-year-old Skenes is, indeed, in his own category. Despite spending the first six weeks of the season at Triple A, Skenes authored the most dominant season of any rookie starting pitcher of the past 50 years.

In a 9-4 Pirates win Saturday, Skenes, starting opposite Yankees right-hander Luis Gil in a matchup of Rookie of the Year front-runners, tossed two perfect innings, then strode off the field with a smile. He ended the season 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA across 133 innings, with 170 strikeouts and 32 walks.

By ERA+, which adjusts for league and park factors, the last starter with a comparable rookie season to Skenes (211 ERA+) did it 51 years ago — Montreal Expos righty Steve Rogers (245 ERA+), who started only 17 games in 1973 but finished seven of them, with a 1.54 ERA in 134 innings.

Since then …

Among those left off the list are Rookie of the Year winners Dwight Gooden (137 ERA+), Fernando Valenzuela (135) and Kerry Wood (129).

“(Skenes) has been one of the big stories of Major League Baseball this year — first pick, doesn’t break camp and then is starting the All-Star Game,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said before Saturday’s game. “He’s obviously had a phenomenal year. I think our guys are looking forward to facing him.

“He’s a player that’s really, really taken the league by storm and has emerged as one of the game’s outstanding starters.”

The story of Skenes’ rookie season is best told in bullet points:

• Since 2000, nine starters have had a sub-2 ERA in at least 130 innings in a season: Pedro Martínez, Roger Clemens, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jake Arrieta, Blake Snell, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and now Skenes.

• Skenes is the fourth pitcher in MLB history with a sub-2 ERA and at least 11 strikeouts per nine innings.

• He’s the second pitcher since 1913 with a sub-2 ERA through 23 starts.

• He’s the fifth rookie since 1900 with at least 150 strikeouts and fewer than 40 walks.

• Skenes allowed six hits or fewer in all 23 starts, the third-longest stretch to start a career in recorded history.

• Since debuting May 11, Skenes leads all starters in ERA (1.96), strikeout rate (32.9 percent), average fastball velocity (98.9 mph) and Win Probability Added (3.71), and he ranks second in WHIP (0.95), opponent batting average (.198), FIP (2.48) and strikeout-minus-walk rate (26.6 percent).

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From his first major-league pitch at 4:07 p.m. on May 11, a 101 mph four-seamer, to his last pitch Saturday in the Bronx, a 100 mph four-seamer, Skenes delivered time and again for the Pirates. He pitched six no-hit innings in his second start and seven no-hit innings in his 11th start. He chucked 101 mph past Shohei Ohtani. He started the All-Star Game. Skenes allowed two or fewer earned runs in 20 of 23 starts, remaining remarkably consistent even as the Pirates’ playoff chances cratered in August.

Skenes will earn a full year of service by finishing top-two in NL Rookie of the Year voting, so his brilliance will bring him to free agency after five more seasons, not six. The Pirates made no attempts to shut down Skenes or sharply limit his innings late in the season, moves that might have hurt his Rookie of the Year case. On multiple occasions in recent weeks, Shelton stumped for Skenes to win over Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio.

“He’s doing things we haven’t seen anybody do,” Shelton said Saturday. “Since he’s come up, it’s hard to argue that he’s not only been Rookie of the Year but he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball. To have a sub-2 ERA in his first year, especially in today’s era, that’s pretty special.”

Shelton was around several standout young pitchers earlier in his career: CC Sabathia in Cleveland; David Price, Chris Archer and Snell in Tampa; José Berríos in Minnesota. None arrived like Skenes. “That’s a pretty good group of guys,” Shelton said, “and I’d put him right at the top of that.”

The Skenes Effect was evident on Pittsburgh’s North Shore this summer. Skenes pitched seven of the Pirates’ 20 highest-attended home games this season. The average attendance at PNC Park for Skenes starts was 25,460. On any other day: 20,504.

The Pirates had several high-profile pitching debuts in the 2010s — Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Mitch Keller — but none arrived as capable of eviscerating opposing lineups as Skenes. In fact, the Pirates hadn’t seen anything like this from a rookie starter since Chester A. Arthur was in office, as only Denny Driscoll in 1882 had a better ERA (1.21) or ERA+ (218) through 23 starts in a season than Skenes.

The Pirates haven’t had any starter in the live-ball era start at least 23 games and have a lower ERA or higher ERA+ than Skenes.

Closest ERA: 1968, Bob Veale, 2.05

Closest ERA+: 1977, John Candelaria, 169

Skenes struck out 32.9 percent of batters this season, more than any other right-handed starter in the sport, by spewing gas and ripping splinkers — a sinker/splitter hybrid that Skenes picked up accidentally while playing catch after the draft last year. The splinker elevated a pitch mix that had concerned some evaluators who felt Skenes relied too heavily on a flat fastball and a sweeping slider. Opposing hitters have been flummoxed by the splinker, batting .184 with a .234 slugging percentage against the pitch.

Asked what stood out to him about Skenes, Boone pointed out “the size and power and the ease with which he generates stuff — and then having some cool names for his pitches, too.” Boone added: “He’s so large and generates such power without looking like he’s max-efforting it.”

Skenes averaged 98.9 mph on his four-seam fastball. He touched triple digits 100 times, more than twice as much as any other starter. But it was his ability to sequence and run his mix six pitches deep that was so impressive in the stretch run. He turned to his changeup in key moments in September. He dialed back his fastball usage, then in his last start, attacked Soto and Chisholm with heat right under their hands.

Paul Skenes roasting Juan Soto. pic.twitter.com/V2rzmqsIlq

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 28, 2024

What will his manager remember from Skenes’ rookie season?

“The fact he continued to get better,” Shelton said.

Skenes allowed four earned runs across his last seven starts.

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Skenes has had the most dominant rookie season of any starter since Steve Rogers, but not the most valuable. That’s a more complicated case to make.

Skenes entered Saturday with 5.8 WAR, by Baseball Reference ranking 20th among rookie starters in the live-ball era. Brandon Webb, José Fernández and Michael Soroka are all higher on the list. At No. 1, by a full win, is Mark Fidrych: 9.6 WAR. Fidrych had a 2.45 ERA and 159 ERA+ over 250 1/3 innings for the 1976 Tigers. Skenes didn’t come within 100 innings of Fidrych.

When it comes to WAR, The Bird still stands alone.

And yet, had Skenes been on the Pirates’ Opening Day roster, it could be considerably closer. With 10 more starts at this rate, Skenes would have 8.4 WAR, third among rookie starters in the live-ball era.

*Estimate based on Skenes’ pace through 22 starts

Asked after his start Saturday if he’d met his expectations for 2024, the ever-understated Skenes said he hadn’t brought many expectations into the season. He just wanted to take the ball every fifth day.

“I don’t know what else I could have done,” Skenes said, “but I’m definitely happy with how this season went.”

In total, between the minors and majors, Skenes threw 160 innings this season. That seems to have been the Pirates’ chosen number all along. Shelton sat down Skenes in St. Louis two weeks ago and said he’d go five innings against the Reds and two against the Yankees in his last two starts.

Skenes would have preferred to throw with no restrictions this season — the late start effectively prevented him from capturing the ERA title or vying for the NL Cy Young Award — but the Pirates succeeded in keeping him healthy and ready for a larger workload in 2025. “We didn’t know if (the plan) was going to be perfect,” Shelton said. “I don’t know if anybody did. I realize people are going to be critical because they wanted to see him.”

Skenes has two goals for next season. The first is a repeat.

“Just take the ball and pitch,” he said.

The second?

“Win a lot of baseball games.”

(Photo: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)