MLB playoffs temperature check: What to watch with each contender in the final week

The last week of the MLB regular season is upon us. While some postseason tickets have been punched, there are several spots left to claim and first-round byes to secure for the top two teams in each league. Let’s check in on the 15 teams still in the playoff picture to see what our writers are focusing on during this final stretch and how the most relevant tiebreakers line up for each team.

(Note: Y indicates a team has clinched a division title; X denotes a team has clinched a postseason berth.) 

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National League

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (93-63) — x

So much is still in flux for the Dodgers in terms of seeding, including even landing a first-round bye. The Dodgers still have more than a 90 percent chance of winning the NL West again, according to FanGraphs, but one bad series against the Padres could make things quite interesting. The offense is explosive and dynamic (with Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, in particular, being the drivers ahead of Freddie Freeman). The bullpen appears as deep as it’s been all season. The question, for the second year in a row, is the starting pitching. It’s likely that Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and Landon Knack will factor into the Dodgers’ rotation plans, which isn’t exactly how the organization pictured things this spring. — Fabian Ardaya

Remaining series: vs. Padres (three games), at Rockies (three games)

Tiebreakers: Philadelphia holds the tiebreaker over Los Angeles for seeding, but the Dodgers have the tiebreaker over Milwaukee. San Diego holds the tiebreaker over L.A. for the division title.

2. Philadelphia Phillies (93-64) — y

The Phillies have guaranteed a postseason berth for the third consecutive season — only the third time that has happened in club history. They captured their first National League East title in 13 years with a win over the Cubs on Monday night; the next step is securing a first-round bye. That could be in hand before the weekend. They stumbled during a road trip to Milwaukee and New York — two teams the Phillies could see in October — but it was not because they didn’t pitch. This is a team built on its four-deep rotation and hard-throwing bullpen. If there is a fear, it’s that this boom-or-bust lineup filled with talent has a cold week in October. One thing to monitor: The Phillies have chased pitches out of the strike zone at a higher rate (34 percent) in September than any other month this season. — Matt Gelb

Remaining series: vs. Cubs (two games), at Nationals (three games)

Tiebreakers: Philadelphia holds tiebreakers over Los Angeles and Milwaukee.

3. Milwaukee Brewers (89-67) — y

The Brewers are the only team in baseball that has not endured a four-game losing streak all season. It took a shocking comeback Sunday against the Diamondbacks to keep that alive. Down eight runs in the third inning, the Brewers rallied for an eventual 10-9 victory. It was a needed win for a team that easily clinched the NL Central despite a 9-11 record so far in September. The Brewers’ odds of earning a first-round bye are down to about 1 percent. Milwaukee needs its lineup to start clicking if it wants to regain favor as a potential October spoiler. With players such as Sal Frelick slumping and Willy Adames hitting only .208 in September, the Brewers’ team wRC+ of 81 this month ranks 24th in MLB. — Cody Stavenhagen

Remaining series: at Pirates (three games), vs. Mets (three games)

Tiebreakers: Philadelphia and Los Angeles hold tiebreakers over Milwaukee.

4. San Diego Padres (90-66)

At the trade deadline, the Padres dramatically upgraded what might now be the best bullpen in the league. The returns have been as hoped; San Diego’s deep collection of high-leverage arms has been featured heavily amid a 40-17 second half. If there is a concern, it’s the pitch usage of Robert Suarez. The closer rode his fastball-reliant approach to his first All-Star appearance, but he has struggled to consistently miss bats since the first week of August. As the Padres try to chase down their first division title since 2006 — San Diego must finish at least 5-1 to have a chance — can Suarez make successful adjustments? And if he continues to falter, will manager Mike Shildt be more inclined to deploy another All-Star closer, Tanner Scott, in the ninth? — Dennis Lin

Remaining series: at Dodgers (three games), at Diamondbacks (three games)

Tiebreakers: San Diego holds the tiebreaker over Los Angeles for the division title. The Mets have the tiebreaker over the Padres for seeding, but San Diego owns the tiebreaker versus the Braves. The Padres-Diamondbacks tiebreaker is TBD (season series is tied).

5. New York Mets (87-69)

The Mets can clinch a playoff berth with a series win against the Atlanta Braves. Baseball’s best team since June, the Mets have earned their spot among the contenders because of their resilience and depth. Those are hallmarks of any quality club navigating injuries, but the Mets must lean further on those characteristics to overcome the absence of Francisco Lindor, who remains out with a back issue with no firm timetable for a return. Without Lindor, the Mets have continued to roll. Their lineup has received contributions from a host of players, and that has so far been enough, but they may need more from Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez. Their defense has vastly improved since Jose Iglesias joined the team in late May. And their pitching staff has rounded into form. Since August, all five of the Mets’ starters own sub-3.50 ERAs. Will that continue as manager Carlos Mendoza acts more aggressively with a bullpen led by Edwin Díaz? — Will Sammon

Remaining series: at Braves (three games), at Brewers (three games)

Tiebreakers: New York holds the tiebreakers over San Diego and Arizona. The Mets-Braves tiebreaker is TBD (season series is tied).

6. Arizona Diamondbacks (87-70)

All told, the Diamondbacks should make a second consecutive postseason appearance for only the second time ever. There are a few nagging caveats. They blew their largest lead — eight runs — in franchise history Sunday, further evidence of a rough September for their relievers, whose collective ERA has been dangerously close to 7.00 this month. Starting catcher Gabriel Moreno exited early with left adductor tightness one week after his return from a left adductor strain that put him on the injured list for a month-plus. Manager Torey Lovullo said Monday that Moreno is “day-to-day.” Then there’s pitcher Merrill Kelly, who left two of his last three starts prematurely with cramping. The Mets-Braves series will have direct ramifications on where the Diamondbacks land in the final standings. Currently, the Braves are 1 1/2 games back of the Diamondbacks, who are a half-game behind the Mets and 3 1/2 behind the Padres. — Noah Furtado

Remaining series: vs. Giants (two games), vs. Padres (three games)

Tiebreakers: New York and Atlanta hold tiebreakers over Arizona. The Padres-Diamondbacks tiebreaker is TBD (season series is tied).

7. Atlanta Braves (85-71)

If the Braves and Mets playing a critical series in Atlanta during the last week of the season seems familiar, it’s because they did it in 2022 with the division on the line. Atlanta swept that one, but it’s the Mets that enter with momentum and swagger now, while the injury-depleted Braves struggle to score and support their solid pitching. Chris Sale’s velocity reduction in his last start led the Braves to give him an extra day of rest; he’ll start Wednesday against New York rather than pitch twice this week, so rookie sensation Spencer Schwellenbach starts Tuesday. The Braves have won 11 of 19, but only two of the victories were against a winning team. They trail the Mets by two games and the teams have split their previous 10, so if New York wins the series, the best the Braves could do is finish with the same record, and the Mets would own the tiebreaker. Atlanta’s only other postseason route would require an Arizona collapse. — David O’Brien

Remaining series: vs. Mets (three games), vs. Royals (three games)

Tiebreakers: Atlanta holds the tiebreaker over Arizona. San Diego has the tiebreaker over the Braves. The Braves-Mets tiebreaker is TBD (season series is tied).

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American League

1. New York Yankees (92-64) — x

Will the Yankees tip their hand regarding their preferred starter in left field? At this point, the division title is all but assured; they’ll need to finish the season 0-6 to miss out on winning the AL East. There are still a couple of postseason roster decisions to be made before October: Who will be their third starter in the ALDS? Does Marcus Stroman make the roster as a long reliever? And how will they use former closer Clay Holmes? But the most intriguing question is whether 21-year-old Jasson Domínguez, their top prospect, has done enough to unseat Alex Verdugo for the starting left field job. If Domínguez gets the majority of playing time in left field over these next six games, it could reveal how the Yankees feel about the rookie in October. — Chris Kirschner

Remaining series: vs. Orioles (3 games), vs. Pirates (3 games)

Tiebreakers: New York holds the tiebreaker over Guardians for seeding. The Yankees-Orioles tiebreaker is TBD. (New York is 4-6 against them this season.)

2. Cleveland Guardians (90-67) — y

Cleveland’s top priority this week is to sew up a first-round bye and the club would prefer to do that before the Astros, their primary competition for that bye, come to town for a regular season-ending series this weekend. Otherwise, there’s a lot to sort out with their playoff roster. They could pick names out of a hat to determine the rotation after Tanner Bibee. Will Alex Cobb be healthy? Will Gavin Williams be trustworthy? Do Ben Lively and Matthew Boyd deserve a shot? There are a couple of bench roles up for grabs as well. The Guardians are hoping to activate Steven Kwan from the injured list in the next day or two. He’ll have to replace someone on the roster, which could give us some insight into their thinking for October. — Zack Meisel

Remaining series: vs. Reds (two games), vs. Astros (three games)

Tiebreakers: New York holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland for seeding. The Guardians-Astros tiebreaker is TBD. (Cleveland is 1-2 against them this season.)

3. Houston Astros (85-72)

On June 18, the worst team in modern major-league history shut out the Astros, sending them seven games below .500 and 10 games behind the Seattle Mariners in the AL West. Houston has gone 52-31 since, seizing advantage of Seattle’s epic collapse to put itself on the precipice of a fourth consecutive division title. One win in the next two games against the Mariners will seal the Astros’ division title — and send them into uncharted territory. FanGraphs gives them just a 1.2 percent chance of clinching a first-round bye, but three games against the Guardians to end the season could give Houston a chance to avoid the wild-card round. First-year manager Joe Espada would then have to decide whether resting overworked second baseman Jose Altuve along still-injured cornerstones Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman is more prudent than chasing a bye his team is unlikely to get. — Chandler Rome

Remaining series: vs. Mariners (two games), at Guardians (three games)

Tiebreakers: New York holds the tiebreaker over Houston for seeding, while the Astros-Guardians tiebreaker is TBD. (Houston is 2-1 against them this season.) The Mariners have the tiebreaker over Houston for the division title.

4. Baltimore Orioles (86-70)

The Orioles are all but certain to be playoff-bound, but that’s about the only good thing going for them. They’ve lost 11 of 16 to basically destroy all hope of a second straight AL East crown. And the only reason they’re still likely to host the wild-card round is due to Kansas City and Minnesota having similarly rough September stretches. Adley Rutschman is hitting just .189 over his last 15 games, as part of a team-wide offensive downturn. They DFA’d reliever Craig Kimbrel last week, as the bullpen’s effectiveness remains in flux. The Orioles have the talent to be a World Series contender, but they have thus far saved their worst baseball for the worst possible time. — Sam Blum

Remaining series: at Yankees (three games), at Twins (three games)

Tiebreakers: Baltimore holds the tiebreaker over Kansas City. Detroit has the tiebreaker over the Orioles. The Yankees-Orioles tiebreaker is TBD. (Baltimore is 6-4 against them this season.)

5. Kansas City Royals (82-74)

On Sept. 14, the Royals improved to 82-67 and had a 98.8 percent chance to make the postseason, according to FanGraphs. Since then, they’ve lost seven straight games and, as of Monday, their playoff odds had plummeted to 68.6 percent. In all, the Royals are 7-14 since first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino exited with a broken thumb on Aug. 29. With Pasquantino sidelined and Salvador Perez slugging .324 in September, the offense has disappeared. Kansas City has scored just four runs in its last five games, including one in a three-game sweep by the San Francisco Giants. With the Tigers facing the Chicago White Sox in their final series, the Royals may need to take four of six games against the Washington Nationals and Braves — at least — to stay ahead of the Twins. — Rustin Dodd 

Remaining series: at Washington (three games), at Braves (three games)

Tiebreakers: Kansas City holds the tiebreaker over Detroit and Seattle, but the Orioles and Twins have the tiebreaker over the Royals.

6. Detroit Tigers (82-74)

As of Monday afternoon, the Tigers’ playoff odds were up to 71 percent. They need to stay hot, especially in the upcoming series against the Tampa Bay Rays. But beyond that, it will be interesting to see if the Tigers can clinch a playoff spot — and whether they can push for the second wild card — entering Game 162 against the Chicago White Sox. Tarik Skubal will be slated to start that day, but Detroit might prefer to push him to the opening game of the Wild Card Series if possible. Otherwise, the Tigers would be without their ace on full rest for their first playoff series in a decade. — Cody Stavenhagen

Remaining series: vs. Rays (three games), vs. White Sox (three games)

Tiebreakers: Detroit has the tiebreaker over Seattle and Baltimore, but Kansas City and Minnesota have the tiebreaker over the Tigers.

7. Minnesota Twins (81-75)

At this point, the Twins simply need wins to avoid completing one of the biggest collapses in team history. Minnesota was 70-53 in mid-August, with playoff odds around 95 percent. Since then, the Twins are 11-22 and have fallen out of playoff position for the first time since early May. They’re fortunate to finish at home, with three games against the last-place Marlins and three games against a likely playoff-bound Orioles team that may not have much at stake. Holding tiebreakers over the Royals, Tigers and Mariners provides a half-game boost, but that may not matter unless the Twins can go at least 4-2. It’s not asking a lot against two less-than-motivated foes, but the last time the Twins had at least four wins in any six-game stretch was Aug. 13-18, which also happens to mark the start of this free fall.

— Aaron Gleeman

Remaining series: vs. Marlins (three games), vs. Orioles (three games)

Tiebreakers: Minnesota holds tiebreakers over Detroit, Kansas City and Seattle.

8. Seattle Mariners (81-76)

It’s been a dozen years since a team led the majors in ERA and missed the playoffs (Tampa Bay, 2012), but that’s in play for Seattle, which finished the weekend outside the playoff mix with an MLB-low 3.52 ERA. The Mariners have scored more runs under new manager Dan Wilson and hitting coach Edgar Martinez, and Julio Rodríguez has finally come alive. But it’s hard to trust this group of hitters, and the Astros’ staff presents a challenge this week. Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are set to start the next two games in Houston, so that’s encouraging, but Luis Castillo is out with a hamstring strain and the bullpen has been shaky lately. This week will have to go almost perfectly for the Mariners to have a chance — and even then, they’ll need some luck, because they own none of the relevant tiebreakers. — Tyler Kepner

Remaining series: at Astros (two games), vs. A’s (three games)

Tiebreakers: Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City and Minnesota hold tiebreakers over Seattle. The Mariners have the tiebreaker over Houston for the division title.

(Top image: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Riley Greene: Matt Dirksen / Getty Images; Mookie Betts: Rich von Biberstein / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images)