Ever since Anthony Joshua crumpled to the canvas in New York, there have been warning signs that could lead to a sensational upset at Wembley this weekend.
June 1, 2019, at Madison Square Garden, Joshua suffered the first defeat of his professional career, losing his IBF and WBO world titles via stunning seventh-round stoppage to unfancied replacement opponent Andy Ruiz.
It was a result which sent shockwaves around the world of boxing and the wider sporting sphere, although a glance at the punch statistics showed trends which later reared their head in the two points defeats to current heavyweight king Oleksandr Usyk.
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Ahead of Saturday’s huge bout at Wembley, Anthony Joshua and Daniel Dubois shared a tense face-off
Not only that, but it gives some signposts to keep an eye out for during the 2012 Olympic gold medallist’s Saturday night world heavyweight title showdown with reigning IBF champion Daniel Dubois at Wembley, live on Sky Sports Box Office.
In compiling a 28-3 (25) record since joining the professional ranks 11 years ago, Joshua has been fairly consistent with the number of punches he has landed in the first round of contests – whether he wins or loses.
It is in the fourth round where the difference between those 28 wins and three loses becomes apparent, with the 34-year-old landing an average of just over 11 punches in Round 4 when he wins – but just six in defeats.
Not only that, but his punch accuracy dips dramatically after the third round as well. Whereas in wins, it is never lower than 30 per cent from Rounds 2 to 11, his punch accuracy is consistently lower than that in losses and clocks 25 per cent or lower in nine of the 12 rounds.
The statistics from the defeats to Ruiz and Usyk bear that out where, according to the CompuBox tracker, he was outpunched 31-23 by the Mexican from the fourth round to when he was stopped in the seventh after having an almost equal share 25-24 in the first three.
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Back in 2019, Andy Ruiz shocked the world when he dethroned Anthony Joshua at Madison Square Garden
The difference was even more pronounced in the first defeat to Usyk, where CompuBox had Joshua landing just 19.2 per cent of punches across all 12 rounds compared to the 28 per cent from the Ukrainian.
Interestingly, Joshua has also taken far more ‘power punches’ per round in his three defeats – again, with a notable increase coming in Round 3 and beyond.
Across those 28 wins, the former unified heavyweight champion has only been hit by an average of more than five power punches in the sixth round.
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Anthony Joshua was hurt and outpointed by Oleksandr Usyk in their first fight
By contrast, opponents have landed five or more power punches on Joshua in every round bar Round 4 on average during his three defeats.
In the losses to Usyk, CompuBox recorded Joshua as taking more power punches than he landed in six and eight of the final 10 rounds respectively, including highs of 23 in the final round of the first Usyk fight and 32 in the 10th of the Usyk rematch.
The table below shows how much Joshua struggled against Usyk – with the Ukrainian landing notably more total punches across both fights.
To emphasise the point further, Joshua’s unanimous decision victory in the rematch against Ruiz saw him recorded as having a better punch accuracy than his opponent in all but Rounds 8 and 9, and taking just 37 power punches across the entire 12 rounds, compared to shipping 39 in their first encounter.
The stats related to Joshua’s defeats are limited to just three fights, two of which came against an elite opponent in Usyk.
But on Saturday night, it may be worth keeping an eye on how Joshua’s punch accuracy is holding up from Round 3 onwards and whether Dubois is able to start landing above 4.5 power punches per round.
If so, we could see a stunning upset in this weekend’s British heavyweight battle.
Anthony Joshua’s heavyweight showdown with Daniel Dubois takes place on Saturday September 21 live on Sky Sports Box Office. Book Joshua v Dubois now!