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WNBA power rankings: New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx battle for top playoff seed

Robert Melton

Three-quarters of the way through the WNBA season, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. One of the most interesting fault lines will be between fourth and fifth place in the standings, as teams battle for home court in the first round of the playoffs.

The New York Liberty have a clear path to the top overall seed. Although they won’t claim it as an accomplishment, entering the playoffs with the best record means something. Over the past seven seasons, only once has a team won the WNBA title (No. 5 seed Chicago Sky in 2021) without having been or being tied for the best record in the league. The Liberty are two games clear of Connecticut and own the tiebreaker, which means they’d have to lose three more games than the Sun over the final 10 to fall out of the top spot.

The battle for the No. 2 seed is slightly more contested. Connecticut is one game up on Minnesota, also with the tiebreaker in hand, so the Lynx would have to outdo the Sun by two games. However, they play each other once during this final stretch, so Minnesota can make up one game then. The Lynx also have the second-easiest remaining schedule, with no games left against the Seattle Storm or the Las Vegas Aces, and Connecticut has four. Considering Minnesota’s recent run, I’d wager that the Lynx eclipse the Sun and earn home-court advantage in the second round of the postseason.

That brings us to Seattle and Las Vegas in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup. Given the teams’ remaining games, it’s unlikely either squad can move up to get out of this pairing. The Phoenix Mercury also have too tough of a schedule to jump over either of them. Nevertheless, both teams will want to be the No. 4 seed to host the first two games in the best-of-three first-round series. The Storm are up half a game and have been slightly better statistically, but the Aces are up 2-1 in the season series. If the Storm win the final matchup at home, where they are 11-3, that will put them two losses ahead of Las Vegas. Similarly, a win puts the Aces even in the standings and gives them the tiebreaker. That game is the second to last of the regular season, and it should bring some intrigue.

For now, neither of those teams is playing well enough to consider itself a threat to New York or Minnesota, but the Storm just added Gabby Williams, and Las Vegas has two back-to-back banners to look at for inspiration. Nevertheless, the top two teams in this week’s rankings are on a different level and are deserved title favorites at this point.

Three standout performances

MV-Phee

In the five games since the Olympic break — when Napheesa Collier, lest we forget, helped lead Team USA to a gold medal — the Lynx forward is averaging 25.6 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.6 steals while shooting 66.2 percent from the field. There are several reasons the Lynx are undefeated in August, but none more important than the one-woman wrecking crew wearing No. 24.

In Wednesday’s win at Las Vegas, Collier was the primary defensive assignment against A’ja Wilson and helped to limit the two-time MVP to 15 points — more than 10 below her season average. In Friday’s rematch, the Aces went small in the starting lineup to change the matchups and create more spacing. Collier punished that decision, setting a career high with 18 rebounds and outrebounding the entire Las Vegas team (17) in the process. She is the third player in WNBA history to outrebound her opponent. On a back-to-back the next night, she posted a season-high 31 points to clinch a playoff spot for Minnesota.

There isn’t much Collier can’t do on a basketball court. She’s anchoring the best defense in the league not only as a one-on-one defender but also with impressive anticipation in help defense. She’s shooting the ball better than she ever has as a pro (except the bubble season, which had some anomalous offensive stats) and flows into whatever the Lynx need from her on offense. She can bang inside, bring the ball up herself, work a two-player action with Courtney Williams and spot up from outside. It’s been a remarkable season for the 27-year-old, and her play as of late is reopening what seemed to be a closed MVP discussion. Wilson’s numbers are out of this world, but winning matters in those votes, and Collier is doing more of that.

Signs of life in Atlanta

It isn’t just Tina Charles’ scoring; the Atlanta Dream’s entire offensive ecosystem is perking up. Atlanta finally has been able to pair its premier offseason acquisition Jordin Canada with its best player Rhyne Howard, and the results have validated the front office’s plan. When those two share the court, which has happened for 109 minutes over four games, the Dream outscore opponents by 11.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s a net rating on par with what the Liberty have done all season.

Individually, Canada has been as good as advertised after a career year with the Los Angeles Sparks in 2023. She’s making 44.7 percent of her 2-pointers and 31.8 percent of her 3s, which is slightly down from last season but good enough to still command respect as a shooter. She’s undeterred attacking the basket despite her 5-foot-6 frame. Canada has had at least 6 assists in every game but one this season, and she’s tied for third in the W with 2 steals per contest, punctuated by 6 takeaways in Atlanta’s win over Connecticut last week.

But it’s the team impact that matters for the Dream. With Canada on the floor, Atlanta’s true shooting percentage is up from 49.3 to 52.4, per PBP Stats. The Dream’s 3-point attempt rate is up, their live-ball turnover percentage is down, and their opponent shot quality has decreased. Now that they have a real-life point guard to direct the offense and defend the point of attack, little things are getting cleaned up, putting Atlanta in position to once again contend for a playoff spot.

Phoenix’s role players are providing a lift

The Mercury have an overwhelming amount of star power with three Team USA Olympians, but it’s been fun watching their role players fill in the gaps. As coach Nate Tibbetts said after Phoenix’s latest win over Atlanta, “Tash (Cloud) and Soph (Cunningham) really make this group go.”

Cloud has started most games taking on the power forward assignment defensively despite playing point guard on the other end, and Cunningham has had to defend nearly every position. Look at this set of plays in the second quarter against the Dream, when she essentially causes three changes in possession without any box score stats to show for it. She digs in on Charles, forcing a bad pass to Canada that is fumbled out of bounds. She picks up a loose ball that Charles mishandled and then draws a charge on Allisha Gray. Three defensive plays on different areas of the court, and Phoenix needed every one to win by one possession.

And Celeste Taylor continues one of the more interesting rookie odysseys in recent memory. She spent the Olympic break with Phoenix, finishing out a preposterously long seven-day contract after she had been cut by the Indiana Fever. The day her contract was up, she signed for seven days with Connecticut, and then the Mercury snapped her back up as soon as they legally could.

A two-time conference defensive player of the year, Taylor immediately has an impact on Phoenix’s perimeter defense. As Tibbetts said, “She comes in and makes stuff happen.” Her ability to play off the ball has been important for the Mercury, who have stars who attract double- and triple-teams. Taylor’s biggest highlight of the night came when she hit a layup after an unbelievable pass from Diana Taurasi, but it was the play before, when she filled the lane to give Brittney Griner a dump-off pass in the post, that shows her value on offense.

Rookie of the week

Jacy Sheldon, Dallas Wings

Sheldon played mostly off ball during the first part of the WNBA season but is getting consistent point-guard minutes since the Olympic break in the never-ending lead guard roulette in Dallas. She is the starting point guard next to four returning starters from last year’s Wings, who advanced to the WNBA semifinals, affording her a better learning opportunity than most rookies. She has 18 assists over the last four games and has been particularly good off of dribble handoffs. It’s an interesting way to use her speed, as she zips into the handoff and leaves her defender trailing the play, clearing the way for her teammate to get a jumper. That kind of action is also useful when Arike Ogunbowale is the teammate running to receive the pass.

This has been something of a lost season for Dallas, but Sheldon’s development has been at least one positive. Even if the Wings aren’t sure about her as a full-time point guard, these reps will help her overall floor game.

Game to circle

Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever, 7 p.m. (ET) Wednesday

After losing to the Sun three times within the first month of the season, one final regular-season meetup with Connecticut will be a good test of how much Caitlin Clark has grown since May. Is she strong enough with the ball to handle the Sun’s aggressive perimeter defense? Has Indiana learned how to move off the ball to make Connecticut pay for overloading on Clark? There was a stark gap between these teams on opening night. The standings suggest it has closed since, but let’s see how much.

(Photo of Napheesa Collier: Ben Brewer / Getty Images)

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