Sky Sports Racing senior analyst Jamie Lynch has the lowdown on every runner in Friday’s Betfred Oaks and gives us his big-race verdict.
1. BE HAPPY
Jockey: J A Heffernan | Trainer: A P O’Brien
Like a malfunctioning firework, her winning debut last September promised more than has materialised, despite increases in distance, though this test should at least suit her better than the Lingfield Oaks Trial on the All-Weather in which she was beaten favourite into second, smothered for speed in the end by Eternal Hope.
Of Aidan O’Brien’s ten winners of the Oaks, four of them were second (or third) strings on the day but, while it’s easy to see Be Happy producing a personal best on this stage, it’s hard to envisage her making the required leap to shake up the trio at the top.
2. BRIGHT DIAMOND
C Lee | K R Burke
Caused quite the stir with her sparkling start, by seven lengths at Newmarket, but that initial earthquake has generated no aftershocks, running well all the same for third in the Prestige and Fillies’ Mile, but behind both Eternal Hope and Be Happy hiked in trip for her return in the Lingfield Oaks Trial.
The excellent Karl Burke has a happy habit of pulling rabbit out of hats, but it would be some magic trick to get Bright Diamond onto the podium in an Oaks from what we saw of her at Lingfield, the stiffer test of Epsom liable to hinder rather than help her.
3. CAERNARFON
Connor Beasley | Jack Channon
Was beaten 10 lengths in the 1000 Guineas, but equally as relevant is that she defeated 16 rivals that day, proof positive that she has picked up where she left off as a juvenile (listed winner).
Her last furlong was her best at Newmarket, suggestive of stamina as yet untapped, but even so 1½m at Epsom is a world away, and there’s little in her pedigree to say she’ll stay quite this far. The Oaks will be beyond her means in various respects.
Eternal Hope wins the Oaks Trial at Lingfield Park under William Buick
4. ETERNAL HOPE
W Buick | C Appleby
When Minding won the Oaks in 2016 at odds of 10/11, who was the second favourite? It’s impossible because she’s forgettable, but the answer is Skiffle, at 6/1, and the reason it’s relevant is that Eternal Hope has needed to be supplemented for Epsom, as Skiffle was.
Eternal Hope wasn’t so late in starting nor so light on experience as Skiffle was heading to Epsom, but she has clearly taken Charlie Appleby a bit by surprise since defeated on her debut at Wolverhampton in February, nevertheless only 9/4 when asserting over Be Happy in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, though that trial looks trivial against those produced by Savethelastdance and Soul Sister.
The £30,000 supplement is significant, but perhaps less significant than the fact Eternal Hope wasn’t considered to be this class in the first place.
5. HEARTACHE TONIGHT
C Demuro | D Menuisier
Wonderful Tonight was a little late in blooming to contest an Oaks, though she ended up a top-notcher over middle-distances, and to be honest the same may be true of her half-sister, Heartache Tonight, but she gets her shot at Epsom.
In theory she brings more to the table than most having finished fourth – beaten just 1½ lengths after making much of the running – in the Prix Saint-Alary last time, but in practice that’s hardly Group 1 form, the level little or no better than the British trials.
She’s still on the raw side and, as such, there’s a depth of improvement in her, especially now up in trip, the status (and stamina) of her half-sister an ongoing recommendation, and if there’s a surprise package in the Oaks then I think it’s her.
6. MAMAN JOON
Kevin Stott | R Hannon
The mind immediately goes to Mojo Star who, likewise a maiden, for the same trainer and owner, was 50/1 at Epsom but beaten only by Adayar in the 2021 Derby.
All the same, it’s difficult to imagine lightning striking twice when stripping down her one and only run, as promising as it was for a first-timer. Though second of 16 at Newbury and trading odds-on at one point, she was beaten 9½ lengths in the end by Gather Ye Rosebuds, who herself trailed in last in the jetwash of Soul Sister in the Musidora next time.
Maman Joon will probably turn out to be the Group-class filly she’s bred to be over 1½m, but it’s too much of an undertaking for her to show it in this company so soon in her development.
7. RED RIDING HOOD
W M Lordan | A P O’Brien
Incremental improvements so far rather than anything grander, underqualified for an Oaks from what she’s done on the track, not that it has stopped some from the stable at Epsom, but it adds weight to the theory that she may be here more to service stable-companion Savethelastdance, especially as she made the running for her maiden win at Dundalk.
Running Lion impressed at Newmarket under Oisin Murphy
8. RUNNING LION
Oisin Murphy | J & T Gosden
On form, she’s closer to the ‘big two’ than the betting implies, 5 lb short on official ratings and just 1 lb shy with Timeform, following her fluent win in the Pretty Polly, more about style then substance, but all the qualities she showcased at Newmarket (of athleticism, alacrity and acceleration) will get her a long way at Epsom.
Time and temptation has seen plans seemingly change from the shorter trip of the Prix de Diane to the stiffer test of the Oaks, which brings us back to the primary point about Roaring Lion and his progeny, though Running Lion’s half-brother Cozone (by Derby winner Pour Moi) won over as far as 2m.
9. SAVETHELASTDANCE
R L Moore | A P O’Brien
It’s not just that Savethelastdance won her race at Chester by a wide margin, it’s that she won any race, at a meaningful level, by as much as 22 lengths which was outstanding, in every sense of the word, and much has rightly been made of her final 2f split, not only faster than the sprinters that day but, as Simon Rowlands illuminated us in the Boodles May Festival edition of Sectional Spotlight, speedier still than Shergar in the 1981 Chester Vase on far faster ground.
Ryan Moore
The question is not of her ability but instead of her compatibility, with Epsom and with firmer going than she’s faced so far, a matter of conjecture, but before the slow burn of Chester came a much more direct and dynamic performance (from the front) at Leopardstown, and her dam was a Grade 1 winner on acutely fast turf in America, a family score to settle, because Daddys Lil Darling was dramatically withdrawn from the 2017 Oaks after bolting to post amid a storm.
10. SEA OF ROSES
Rob Hornby | A M Balding
In the deep end this year but has swum more than she’s sank, finishing one place ahead of Be Happy when chasing home the French femme fatale Pensee Du Jour in a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud in April, though she was then swept aside by Soul Sister in the Musidora, beaten 8 lengths into fifth.
Sea Of Roses should relish this distance but expressing it in this company will be hard if not impossible, though it sticks in my mind that Andrew Balding has had huge-priced seconds in the Derby in two of the last three years with Khalifa Sat and Hoo Ya Mal.
11. SOUL SISTER
L Dettori | J & T Gosden
Who’s your daddy? We’re in the second age of Frankel, from his means to his genes, the first having been his peerless power on the track, and now we’re witnessing his parental power, already the sire of 27 Group 1 winners around the world, with Chaldean this year taking his Classic count in Britain to six; and Soul Sister did a passable impression of Frankel in the International when she ran away with the Musidora last month.
Soul Sister stretches away from her rivals at York
She was the 18/1 outsider of the field at York because of a dismal display in the Fred Darling, without which we’d be waxing lyrical about her star potential, as she also won her only 2-y-o start, and the Musidora was on ground getting towards the firmer side of good, meaning a box ticked that Savethelastdance hasn’t.
The question of whether Savethelastdance could have done what she did at York can of course be flipped to speculate if Soul Sister would have won the Cheshire Oaks by half the straight, and therein lies the crux of the conundrum for this Classic: I’ve no doubts that Soul Sister will stay, nor that she’s good enough to win an average Oaks, but the spectre of Savethelastdance might mean this is no average Oaks.
JAMIE LYNCH’S VERDICT
Any of the big three of SAVETHELASTDANCE, Soul Sister or Running Lion would be a short-priced favourite for an ordinary Betfred Oaks, and the fact they’re in the same generation may make for an epic edition.
As good as the Gosdens’ duo were in their trials, neither was as freakish as Savethelastdance in the Cheshire Oaks, for which the numbers say seeing is believing, and, though her brilliant best may be more conditional than her main rivals, she has a helping hand from her stablemates to ensure an emphasis on stamina.