The run-in starts here. Tipster Jones Knows casts his eye over a thrilling set of Premier League fixtures and hunts out the value in the betting markets.
West Ham vs Southampton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
When assessing all the teams in the relegation shake-up, West Ham may just have the best manager for negotiating a way to survival. David Moyes has already shown in two huge home six-pointer matches – vs Everton and Nottingham Forest – that he has the experience and knowhow to get results when the pressure cooker is at its hottest. It counts for a lot when the margins are so fine. And I see no reason to oppose the Hammers at odds-on here.
Are they a bet? No.
The value lies in the goalscorer markets where I’m expecting West Ham to create opportunities from set-pieces. West Ham have only scored four goals from such situations this season but their expected goals from set-pieces is double that figure – it’s only a matter of time before they find a way through as the basis of a successful Moyes team revolves around their supremacy at scoring from corners and free-kicks. There should be plenty of corners coming their way too considering they’ve won 24 in their last two home games.
In the last Super 6 round, two six goal thrillers thwarted jackpot chances. Only 69 Super 6 players predicted Southampton 3-3 Tottenham, while just one more correctly predicted Wolves 2-4 Leeds. Another £250,000 jackpot is on the line come Saturday afternoon.
Southampton are notoriously very unorganised defending set-pieces, conceding 11 goals via that avenue this season – only Bournemouth have conceded more. And the appointment of Ruben Selles hasn’t helped matters in that regard either, as since he took the job Saints have conceded twice from corners to a backdrop of 2.56 worth of expected goals – the worst record of any team in that period. With that in mind, Tomas Soucek (16/1 with Sky Bet) and Nayef Aguerd (28/1 with Sky Bet) are both runners in the first goalscorer market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Newcastle vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The goal expectancy for this encounter looks too high, meaning the play has to be oppose goals with under 1.5 at 5/2 with Sky Bet certainly worth consideration.
We’re amid a period during the season where it pays to be an under goals backer as games tend to be tighter with teams playing with a lack of freedom with so much on the line. This season for instance has seen a downtrend in terms of goals per game since the World Cup. Pre-Qatar there were 2.87 goals per game but in January to March, there has been a big drop to 2.49 goals per game across all matches in the Premier League.
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Ahead of the clash between Newcastle and Manchester United live on Sky Sports, a look back at some of the best Premier League goals between the sides, featuring strikes from Wayne Rooney, Alan Shearer, Eric Cantona and more!
In 10 games against the traditional ‘big six’ and Brighton this season, Newcastle’s games have averaged just 1.9 total goals per-90 with seven of those falling under the 2.5 goals line and three of those matches ending 0-0. With Manchester United missing key man Casemiro, to get out of St James’ Park with a point will surely be seen as a great result by Erik ten Hag, so a cautious approach from Manchester United is predicted. Newcastle can edge a low-scoring clash.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Everton vs Tottenham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Everton at 12/5 with Sky Bet playing at Goodison Park on a Monday night under the lights? Yes please.
There is a unique atmosphere for a night game at the great old ground that certainly is a factor to consider when weighing up probabilities for a match outcome. In the last 13 games played on a Monday night at Goodison Park, Everton are unbeaten in 12 of those – the only defeat coming in a 1-0 reverse to Liverpool when Sadio Mane nicked the points in the last minute. Of those 13 results, Everton won eight of those matches, including when underdogs against Manchester United in 2012 and Arsenal in 2021.
The Goodison Park factor is a strong enough case anyway but when you throw in the current crisis at Tottenham, it really does make the pro-Everton view a very strong one to consider at the prices. The ‘draw no bet’ selection at 11/8 with Sky Bet, meaning stakes are refunded if the game is a draw looks a cracking way to oppose Spurs and get Sean Dyche’s improving side in the book.