The N.F.L. trade deadline is a simple divider for some. As the only team at 7-0, the Eagles are in great shape. As the only teams with just one win, the Texans and Lions should think about next year.
But for many teams in the center, Tuesday’s deadline day was an inflection point: Go all in on swaps for players who can win now, or ship out valuable contributors and plan for the future?
A record 12 players were traded in 10 deals on Tuesday, the most in 30 years, according to the N.F.L. That movement, combined with the flurry of trades in the weeks leading up to the deadline, was likely a function of the pileup in the middle of the standings, with 19 of the league’s 32 teams sitting within a game of .500. Some great and some terrible teams went shopping, too. Here’s how the biggest of this year’s moves should affect the season’s second half.
Playing for now:
Minnesota Vikings (6-1)
We already knew the Vikings were riding high at 6-1, and they filled a rare hole on a thriving offense by picking up a tight end, former Pro-Bowler T.J. Hockenson, from the Lions for a second- and third-rounder. It’s rare that division rivals wind up as trade partners, but this is territory that Vikings General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has mined before, swapping picks and players with the Lions and Packers during the 2022 N.F.L. draft.
The move should help stockpile a Minnesota team whose tremendous record obscures that it has eked out many of its wins: Five of the six Vikings victories have been by 8 points or fewer.
The Lions last won a playoff game after the 1991 season and are 1-6 so far this season, making an offload of talent a wise decision.
Miami Dolphins (5-3)
Despite two harrowing hits to the head this season, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been sensational, targeting the high-speed receiver duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
But the Dolphins sit in third place in the A.F.C. East behind the Bills and Jets (the 5-3 Jets have the head-to-head advantage), and their aggressive roster building Tuesday signaled that the team thinks it has a shot at its first playoff berth in six years — and maybe its first playoff win in 22.
Miami acquired defensive help in the star edge rusher Bradley Chubb from the Broncos to shore up a pass defense that is ranked 29th in the league and has given up at least 300 passing yards in four games this season. The Dolphins gave up a first-round pick as part of the package, so it’s clear they value Chubb highly.
As part of the deal, Miami also parted with running back Chase Edmonds — who played a back-seat role to Raheem Mostert — and got a probable upgrade by trading for another 49ers running back in Jeff Wilson in exchange for a fifth-round pick. (Wilson is reuniting with Coach Mike McDaniel, who was his offensive coordinator in San Francisco.)
The Broncos’ 3-5 start is a far cry from preseason expectations after the team signed quarterback Russell Wilson. Though Denver halted a four-game losing streak with a win over Jacksonville in Week 8, trading Chubb for a top pick is probably a sign that Broncs fans are going to have to wait another year for success.
Baltimore Ravens (5-3)
Sitting at the top of the A.F.C. North with their division rivals trending down, the Ravens added linebacker Roquan Smith, a two-time All-Pro, from the Bears in exchange for second- and fifth-round picks in 2023 and linebacker A.J. Klein. Adding a playmaker in the middle makes sense for a banged-up defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards in the league.
Smith was amassing numbers (two interceptions, 2.5 sacks and a league-leading 83 tackles) while playing out the last year of his contract, so the trade helps Chicago avoid doling out a big payday.
San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
The Niners’ biggest move ahead of the trade deadline is already looking sweet. San Francisco picked up Christian McCaffrey on Oct. 20 for four draft picks, ranging from second to fifth round. There were skeptics: Despite McCaffrey’s years of excellence, it seemed like a steep price for any running back.
In his first game with the team, just three days after the trade, McCaffrey had 38 yards on eight carries. But on Sunday, he ran for 94 yards and had two touchdowns, one rushing, one receiving.
Make that three touchdowns, actually: He also threw for a 34-yard touchdown pass as the Niners beat the Super Bowl champion Rams.
At 4-4, the Niners have a 65 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to The New York Times’s playoff simulator, and there is excitement in San Francisco.
Building something:
Chicago Bears (3-5)
As one pair of trade partners demonstrated, there’s a big difference between a 3-5 record in the N.F.C. and a 2-6 record in the A.F.C. For Chicago, that single win is enough to offer a glimmer of hope for a wild-card spot and the second-year leap that ascendant quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts got from teaming up with a top receiver.
Justin Fields, who beat the Patriots, 33-14, almost single-handedly in Week 7, may have convinced team executives that a little help could go a long way. The Bears were buyers on Tuesday, giving up a second-rounder for receiver Chase Claypool from the Steelers, whose 2-6 record has Pittsburgh entrenched at the bottom of the A.F.C. North and aligning its future with a rookie quarterback. Draft picks tend to help with that.
Picking up Claypool, the Bears opportunistically blocked an offer from the Packers (3-5), their N.F.C. North rival who desperately need receiving help.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
With a bad record and coming off a bad loss to the Broncos in London, the Jaguars were not expected to be acquiring players. But the team’s big move added a star who won’t be ready to contribute until next season, at the earliest. Jacksonville negotiated a deal with Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley, currently serving a season suspension for betting on N.F.L. games.
According to NFL Network, the terms of the trade are conditional upon the terms of Ridley’s reinstatement. Atlanta will receive two future draft picks that could include a sixth-round pick in 2023 if Ridley’s return is delayed, or as high as a second-round pick in 2024 if he returns next season and signs a long-term deal in Jacksonville.
Seems a small risk for a player who could be a difference maker if he’s eligible.