Under the normal points system, Djokovic might not even qualify for the ATP Finals in Turin, Italy, this year. Heading into Paris, he was in 10th place in the points race. But under the ATP’s Grand Slam champion rule, any player who wins a major title and is ranked within the top 20 is guaranteed a spot in the year-end championship. (The WTA Tour has no such rule, which is why Djokovic’s fellow Wimbledon champion, Elena Rybakina, did not qualify for the WTA Finals in Fort Worth.)
“Most of the upheaval this year is because of Djokovic,” Patrick McEnroe, a former United States Davis Cup captain and now an ESPN commentator said. “He missed two majors and didn’t get points for the one he won. It really affected the rest of the field. You could make the case that if Djokovic runs the table, wins Paris and the ATP Finals, that he deserves to be No. 1.”
The player most likely to end 2022 at No. 1 is Alcaraz. So far he has won five tournaments this year, including ATP Masters 1000s in Miami and Madrid. In Madrid, he beat Nadal, Djokovic and Alexander Zverev in succession. At the U.S. Open, he knocked off Frances Tiafoe in the semifinals and then Casper Ruud for the championship. He then, at 19, became the youngest No. 1 in ATP rankings history.
The issue for Alcaraz is his lack of indoor experience. Entering the Paris Masters, Alcaraz had played just two tournaments, in Astana and Basel, Switzerland, and two Davis Cup matches indoors this season. Last year he lost in the third round in Paris, but went on to win the Next Gen ATP Finals.
“The way this game is supposed to work is that the new guys get better and start beating the old guys,” said Jimmy Arias, once ranked No. 5 and now the director of tennis at the IMG Academy in Florida. “Alcaraz has shown that he’s the guy to replace them because he’s beaten Nadal and Djokovic this year. I don’t want those older guys to just fade away. The new guys won’t get respect without beating them. It’s the natural order of things.”
In the last few weeks of the season, there are five players who could potentially end the year No. 1 — Alcaraz, Nadal, Ruud, Medvedev and Tsitsipas. Ruud reached two major finals this year, finishing second to Nadal at the French Open and to Alcaraz at the U.S. Open. Ruud has also won three lower-level titles and was runner-up to Alcaraz at the Masters 1000 in Miami.
Medvedev, who beat Djokovic in the final of the U.S. Open last year, was runner-up to Nadal at the Australian Open in January. Shortly after, Medvedev, ascended to world No. 1.