Keir Starmer faces a full in-tray when parliament returns from recess on Monday with a packed legislative agenda, and more doom and gloom over Labour’s tough economic inheritance as he lays the groundwork for the budget.
But he faces unease in the Labour ranks over some of the decisions the government has made as a result, including on winter fuel duty and the two-child benefit cap, as well as more broadly on the lack of hope being offered to voters.
The prime minister has several opportunities in the coming weeks to show there are still reasons for optimism, and that while tax rises and spending cuts may be on the cards, his plans go further than dealing with economic challenges, with opportunities for radical change also ahead.
He addresses the TUC union federation’s congress next week, where he is expected to talk up Labour’s workers’ rights plans, while the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will focus on growth as a counter to what is expected to be a grim budget on 30 October.
There will also be a chance for both to be more upbeat about the country’s future at Labour’s first party conference since its landslide election victory in Liverpool at the end of the month, with MPs in the mood to celebrate.
The result of the US presidential election on 5 November will also be a pivotal moment globally, with a Donald Trump victory no longer a certainty after an energised Kamala Harris’s entrance into the race for the White House. But first, Starmer has to deal with issues closer to home.
Grenfell inquiry
Survivors of the Grenfell Tower disaster in 2017, in which 72 people died, expect the public inquiry’s final report on Wednesday to finally halt a “carousel of blame-pointing” and damn the conduct of government, construction firms and multinational material manufacturers.
Starmer’s government has said it will carefully consider the recommendations, while the bereaved and survivors want a commitment to deliver all of them. The prime minister’s initial response will be a key early test of his premiership.
School inspections
As schools return from their summer holidays this week, the education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, will announce that single-word Ofsted judgments – such as “outstanding” and “inadequate” – will be scrapped with immediate effect for state schools and replaced by report cards aimed at improving standards and helping parents to better understand strengths and weaknesses, after calls from teaching unions and the suicide of primary headteacher Ruth Perry. The Conservatives oppose the plan.
Winter fuel payments
Labour will continue to face pressure from campaigners and critics over its decision to means-test winter fuel payments worth £300 a year for millions of pensioners to help plug a fiscal black hole.
The Tories and Liberal Democrats are pushing for a parliamentary vote, but the Commons leader, Lucy Powell, said the government will not reverse the plan. Instead, it has launched a campaign to encourage retired people to check if they are eligible for pension credit, with 880,000 thought to be missing out on up to £3,900 a year.
However, she raised eyebrows when she suggested the UK faced a run on the pound or an economic crash if the payment had not been scrapped.
Legislation
The railway public ownership bill returns to the Commons on Tuesday, bringing ministers’ plans to bring all passenger rail into national ownership under Great British Railways, as contracts with private operators expire, one step closer.
The following day, MPs will debate the budget responsibility bill, under which any “fiscally significant” government measure must first be assessed by the OBR, the fiscal watchdog. Ministers are also expected to deliver statements on some of the big events over the summer, notably the August riots.
While Starmer may have been forced to cancel his family summer holiday as a result, No 10 insiders feel it gave him the chance to prove his tough law-and-order credentials. The government is also likely to face questions on its plans to ban smoking outdoors.