One week done, five to go. Hang in there, people. What have we learned? That the Conservatives plan to spray around lots of policies. Fair enough – talking about a zany new idea for the future avoids a conversation about the past (stagnant wages plus ubiquitous potholes mean the public has largely made up its mind about the Conservatives).
These aren’t random announcements – they’re aimed at older, 2019 Tory voters now wobbling Reform-wards (which is why the young Sunak is proposing some mandatory youth “volunteering”).
Then there’s the “triple lock plus”, where the personal allowance for pensioners will increase at least 2.5% or in line with the highest of earnings or inflation, so as to avoid those reliant on the state pension being dragged into paying tax.
This would be worth around £250 a year by the end of the next parliament for 8 million pensioners. But research suggests this will not necessarily seal the deal for the prime minister.
First, pensioners aren’t stupid. The only reason they’re in danger of paying tax on their state pension is because Sunak had frozen the tax threshold. Now he’s expecting pensioners to be grateful for just 65% of that tax rise being reversed. And who scrapped higher tax allowances for pensioners in the first place? George Osborne back in the 2010s, which is one of the reasons there were 8.5 million people over 65 paying income tax last year compared with 4.9 million in 2010.
Second, YouGov polling shows 48% of those aged 65-plus see health as a top issue, compared with 7% saying the same about tax. Trying to bribe baby boomers with small tax cuts completely misses the point that they’d like something else. A functioning NHS.
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