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Former home secretary James Cleverly surged into pole position in the Conservative leadership contest on Tuesday, as ex-security minister Tom Tugendhat was knocked out.
In the third round ballot of MPs on Tuesday, Cleverly secured 39 votes, up 18 on the previous round, after he picked up momentum at the party’s annual conference last week.
He was followed by former immigration minister Robert Jenrick on 31 votes, a fall of two compared with the previous round. Jenrick won the first two rounds of voting, but saw his support slip after a lacklustre performance at the party’s gathering.
Former business secretary Kemi Badenoch — who until recently was considered the most popular candidate with Tory members — gained 30 votes, an increase of two.
Tugendhat exited the race after coming last on 20 votes, down one vote, after losing steam at the party conference in Birmingham.
Another contender will be knocked out on Wednesday in the fourth round ballot, with the final two candidates being put to the party membership, with the final results due on November 2.
Cleverly is just two MPs away from reaching the threshold of 41 that is needed to make it into the run-off.
His odds have surged since the conference, with some bookmakers now deeming him the favourite, after he delivered an upbeat message and emphasised his experience in office, having previously filled two of the four so-called great offices of state.
His allies are hopeful that he will pick up supporters who previously backed Tugendhat, given the two hail from a centrist tradition within the Tory movement.
While Jenrick’s support went backwards, his campaign insist he is also on track to pick up MPs from Tugendhat’s camp.
Rival campaign figures admit they anticipate Cleverly will make the final two, but argue that Jenrick or Badenoch are still likely to beat him among the membership because they are more staunchly rightwing. “Dogs bark, cats meow, Tory members support the rightwing candidate,” said one.
When speaking to members at the conference, Cleverly played up his rightwing credentials, saying he advocated for Brexit “before it was cool” and had supported both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. While these positions will play well with Tory members, they may prove less popular with voters more broadly were Cleverly to lead the party into a general election.
The final two candidates must donate £150,000 each to Conservative Campaign Headquarters, on top of a £50,000 contribution that each of the final four had to give the central party.
One campaign insider said the steep cash demand had provoked “annoyance”, while other Tory officials said it revealed the jitters inside the party about its financial situation following its worst-ever election defeat.
Another Conservative insider said the money was “basically being spent on paying senior staff voluntary redundancy packages”, amid a wave of staff exits.
CCHQ said the claims were “drivel”, adding: “There are massive staff and ballot costs. It doesn’t just happen by magic for free and has been the same for every previous leadership election.”
In addition to their donations to the party, the candidates may spend up to £400,000 each on their campaigns.