If 0-3 spells danger, then 0-4 spells disaster for an NFL team. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals — both with high expectations entering the year — could find themselves in that position after Sunday.
Before the season, some might not have expected Minnesota Vikings–Green Bay Packers to arguably be Week 4’s most interesting game. But Sam Darnold’s rebirth, Brian Flores’ “wild” and “different” defense and Malik Willis’ superb backup job (as well as Jordan Love’s status) changed plans.
Elsewhere, it gets more difficult by the week to pry the Pittsburgh Steelers starting quarterback job from Justin Fields. He leads Pittsburgh on the road against Anthony Richardson and the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
There is plenty to discuss ahead of Sunday’s Week 4 games. The Athletic’s Mike Sando, Zak Keefer and Jeff Howe break it all down.
The Jaguars (at Houston) and Bengals (at Carolina) try to avoid the dreaded 0-4 start. Both teams had high expectations heading into the year. Should Jacksonville or Cincinnati be more worried about the direction of its season?
Sando: Jacksonville! The Jaguars have existential questions about their football leadership, about the quarterback they just paid, about the very essence of their operation. They would love to have the Bengals’ problems.
Keefer: I’m very much with Mike on this one. The main difference I see is the quarterback play. Joe Burrow’s been much better the last two weeks, even in two losses, while Trevor Lawrence looks utterly lost. He’s missing throws no starter should miss, let alone a No. 1 pick who’s been very good since he entered the league. He’s now lost eight consecutive starts. Something’s not right in Jacksonville. As for the Bengals, this defense is letting them down. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are good enough to win games, but without Cincinnati playing any sort of complementary football, the Bengals aren’t going to turn this around.
Howe: Before the season, I listed the Jaguars’ four-game schedule out of the gate as their greatest concern, so the 0-3 start wasn’t wholly unpredictable. However, the lack of fight and leadership was far more unexpected. In conversations with executives this week, they saw a team that didn’t have an identity on offense and struggled to protect the quarterback, and saw Lawrence’s inaccuracies as likely due to inconsistent fundamentals resulting from waning confidence. The Jaguars better start coming together or there could be massive changes in the not-so-distant future. The Bengals are probably out of the AFC North race, but they’re still talented and resilient enough to push for a playoff spot.
GO DEEPER
NFL playoff projections 2024: Rams, Ravens avoid 0-3 start — but not Bengals
Between the Sam Darnold Redemption Tour and Malik Willis keeping the Packers afloat (Jordan Love was also listed as questionable Friday), Vikings-Packers is suddenly one of the year’s biggest games so far. How do you see this matchup playing out?
Sando: The Vikings’ defense gives Minnesota the edge while the Packers are possibly shifting gears at quarterback. I’d lean more toward Green Bay if Love had been playing and if he were in a rhythm. The Packers might win it anyway; they’re at home, and Sam Darnold is not going to cruise through the season without turning it over more.
Keefer: Quarterbacks get all the love in this league — and Darnold and Willis had been tremendous, weighing the circumstances they walked into — but the sneaky storyline to pay attention to in this one is the defenses. Brian Flores’ Vikings unit has overwhelmed the 49ers’ and Texans’ offenses in consecutive weeks and is getting after the QB at a historic clip. Jeff Hafley, in his first year running the Packers’ defense, has been excellent. This one doesn’t just feature two of the league’s most underappreciated head coaches in Kevin O’Connell and Matt LaFleur, but two of the best defensive coordinators so far this season, too.
GO DEEPER
Packers-Vikings preview: Jordan Love’s status, Aaron Jones’ return, and more
Howe: The Willis story has been an early-season highlight, but Brian Flores’ defense just made Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud look ordinary in back-to-back weeks. Whether it’s Willis or Love returning from injury and a two-week layoff, I’d be fairly surprised if they got the better of that Vikings defense. Darnold’s start has been impressive, but I’m curious to see how he manages in-game adversity. There hasn’t been much yet, and I’m sure Matt LaFleur and his staff have something in the works to throw him off a bit. This game could set the tone for the Coach of the Year conversation.
The Steelers have a 4-0 start in their sights as they travel to Indianapolis on Sunday. Has Justin Fields done enough to keep the starting job over Russell Wilson should Wilson eventually be cleared to play?
Sando: Sticking with Fields is the easy call. There’s no need to change unless Fields gets injured or really falters. It’s a long season. There’s a good chance Wilson will play at some point. There’s just no need to force it while things are going well.
Keefer: Not if you ask Mike Tomlin, who’s essentially said he’s not making this decision until he has to. But if Fields keeps playing like this, Wilson might not ever see the field this season. Tomlin’s experienced enough to know you don’t mess with a good thing. Fields isn’t lighting it up, but he’s looking more comfortable with each passing week, and his upside is greater than Wilson’s, who is far from the same player he was during his Seattle peak. Anything short of an absolute dud — or a really lousy month — from Fields gets Wilson his starting job back.
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields (2) warms up next to quarterback Russell Wilson before a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Acrisure Stadium. (Barry Reeger / Imagn Images)
Howe: Absolutely. Fields has done everything the Steelers have asked of him. He delivered an absolute beauty of a ball on the 55-yard touchdown to Calvin Austin against the Chargers, but he’s mostly just needed to play responsible football while sprinkling in a timely play. That’s perfect. It’s great to see a team and quarterback align to get the best out of one another. This is the definition of complementary football, and Fields and the coaching staff — and that wildly talented defense — all deserve credit. I’d be stunned if Fields maintained this pace and was relegated to the bench.
Coming off a spectacular ‘Monday Night Football’ performance, Jayden Daniels takes the Commanders on the road against the Cardinals. What has been most impressive about Daniels’ start to the season? Does his play change Washington’s ceiling this year?
Sando: Daniels’ poise has been most impressive. The way he stood strong against the rush, knowing he was going to take a big hit, before delivering the clinching 27-yard touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin was one example of this.
Keefer: Daniels has been the best of the rookie QBs so far, and it’s not particularly close. I think a big part of this is what Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has asked Daniels to do: He’s tapping into his rookie QB’s immense skill set without having him carry the entire offense on his shoulders. That’s much harder than it sounds. Daniels had just two incompletions in Monday night’s win, and part of that was the quick throws Kinsburgy kept calling. It’s a delicate balance starting a rookie passer right away, wanting him to gain the experience of playing regular-season games without the unforgiving nature of this league burying his confidence along the way. The Commanders are acing this test so far, and they deserve credit for that.
Howe: If Daniels keeps this going, the Commanders will be knocking on the door for the playoffs, so I’d say that’s definitely a change in their ceiling. Kingsbury’s offenses trailed off late when he ran the Cardinals, so that’s something to monitor. Part of that, of course, was due to Kyler Murray getting banged up, and executives still believe that could be problematic for Daniels if he takes on too much contact. If they can stick with the run game, both with Daniels and Brian Robinson, the Commanders will be in good shape.
The Seahawks are 3-0 in an NFC West where the 49ers and Rams are battling injuries. The Lions’ path to another division title looks slightly tougher considering the way the Vikings and Packers are playing. Have your preseason expectations about Seattle or Detroit changed through three games?
Sando: My expectations remain about the same, but if the Seattle defense has its way against the Lions’ offense, I’ll wonder a little louder whether opponents are catching up to the Detroit offense. That was a potential concern entering the season.
Keefer: Kudos to Mike Macdaniel and the Seahawks on their 3-0 start. You can only play the teams in front of you. But let’s be honest: Seattle hasn’t beat anyone. I seriously doubt the Broncos, Patriots or Dolphins will end up as a playoff team in 2024. Monday’s game is the Seahawks’ first real test, and if they’re going to hang with the 49ers and Rams — two teams with their own issues at the moment — in the NFC West, this is their chance to prove it. The only thing that worries me about Detroit’s path to a second straight NFC North title is how good the division is. This is the best in the league, and it’s easy to envision three teams all making it to the playoffs: the Lions, Packers and Vikings. Look at the back end of the schedule, when all the NFC North see each other in short succession. This figures to be a wild finish.
Howe: The Seahawks have done a nice job of winning games while not really playing at their best. They’ve also had to overcome some injuries of their own, though they’re not as high profile as their division counterparts. I believed the Seahawks would be a playoff team this season, so my expectations are still the same with them. As for the Lions, they shook off a surprising loss to the Bucs with an impressive victory against a vastly improved Cardinals team. I’ve still got the Lions among the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
(Top photo of Trevor Lawrence: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)