Lib Dem strategy rests on how it responds to Labour and Tories

Good morning from Brighton, where the Liberal Democrats are meeting for their autumn conference. I am feeling a little the worse for wear having spent much of yesterday evening at Glee Club, the Liberal Democrats’ annual sing-song, where members and anyone who turns up joins to sing a bunch of songs about the party’s history.

Glee Club is in many ways the soul of the party. One reason why it is worth attending at least once is that it forms an oral history of the party’s positions — its contortions over the UK’s nuclear deterrent (“We All Dream Of A Part-Time Submarine”), while essentially every row over the party’s relationship with the other parties is codified in song (opponents of close ties with the Labour party can enjoy “The Lib-Lab Lie” and opponents of working with the Conservatives can enjoy “The Twelve Days of Coalition”).

As it stands, however, the argument over the party’s positioning has been settled, if not for good, then at least for the foreseeable by the great British public. Some thoughts on why in today’s note.

Three body problem

What should the Liberal Democrat strategy be? The honest answer, I think, is that it is too early to say. Now it has 72 MPs and is the third party in the House of Commons, the party has many more opportunities to shape its own destiny. But it is the smallest component in a “three body problem” also comprised of the Labour government and the Conservative opposition, both of which will determine how well Ed Davey’s party can do.

How the Lib Dems should position themselves is a question you can only answer with reference to a) how the Labour government conducts itself b) who the Conservative party selects as its leader c) how whoever emerges as Tory leader conducts themselves and d) how events, whether national or global, shake out over the next five years.

The most important thing about this conference is that Davey is the party’s most successful ever leader, and will therefore be able to lead it for as long as he wants. He will, when push comes to shove, get to decide the strategy.

More importantly, the electorate has done a pretty good job of settling the party’s debate, too. It occupies 72 seats in which it either needs to hold off the Conservative party or the Scottish National party. As Anna Gross writes in her interview with Ed Davey, in the 27 seats where the party is in second place, 20 are held by the Conservatives.

Part of that strategy is clear: one way the Liberal Democrats won so many seats was by convincing people they had the best placed candidate to defeat the Conservatives (which is why the leaflets so many of you helpfully sent me during the election almost always featured a bar chart.)

At the next election, “kick out the Tories” won’t be the animating force it was, so while it is too soon to say what their new approach is or should be, what their aim will be is clear: for Lib Dems to find a positive case for those former Tory seats to re-elect them.

Now try this

I had a lovely dinner last night at Halisco, a newish Mexican restaurant in Brighton. Food was lovely, margaritas were great, but of course the best part was the company, which is the essential bit of a good meal.

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