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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Venezuela’s authoritarian president seemed remarkably confident of victory in Sunday’s presidential election, despite a slew of independent polls showing him trailing his main opposition challenger by 20 to 30 percentage points.
After the polls closed, the reason for Nicolás Maduro’s confidence became clear. At many voting stations, the transmission of results was halted and opposition witnesses were shooed away without the tallies of votes to which they were legally entitled. Soldiers took away ballot boxes. Then the government-controlled election authority proclaimed Maduro the winner without giving a detailed breakdown of voting. Officials blamed a foreign hacking attack for disrupting the count.
As the Organisation of American States said on Tuesday: “The worst form of repression, the most vile, is to prevent the people from finding solutions through elections.” Its election department concluded after studying the evidence that it could not recognise Maduro’s victory. The Carter Center, which observed the vote, said it “cannot be considered democratic”.
Much is at stake in Venezuela. The South American nation has the world’s largest proven oil reserves and was once among the continent’s wealthiest countries. Yet years of dire economic mismanagement have destroyed three-quarters of its economic output and have triggered the migration of around a quarter of its population, creating the worst refugee crisis in the Americas.
Worse may be to come. Less than 24 hours after polls closed, Maduro had organised official certification of his win, given a victory speech hailing his defeat of fascist and counter-revolutionary foes and unleashed the security forces to fire tear gas and live ammunition at protesters. At least 11 people have been killed.
In a dangerous and volatile situation, the opposition has shown remarkable courage and restraint. María Corina Machado, the main opposition leader banned from competing, and her surrogate candidate, Edmundo González, have focused on piecing together their own count from voting records collected by supporters. With access to 80 per cent of the tallies, they reckon González beat Maduro by a margin of more than two to one.
The west and regional power Brazil have so far limited themselves to calling for Maduro to release detailed voting data. This strategy is patently inadequate, given how swiftly the Venezuelan revolutionary socialist leader has moved to create facts on the ground. The spectre of past failures haunts Venezuela policy. A Trump-era US policy of “maximum pressure” sanctions worsened hardship and failed to dislodge Maduro. Washington’s decision to recognise the head of the national assembly, Juan Guaidó, as the country’s rightful president in 2019 led nowhere.
These mis-steps are no excuse for inaction now. Western and Latin American nations should quickly verify the voting data which the opposition has made available online. If it stands up, they should congratulate González on his victory and refuse to recognise Maduro’s re-election.
The Biden administration eased sanctions to induce Maduro to hold a competitive vote. If he has stolen victory, the logical response is to cancel the lucrative licences which have allowed Chevron and other foreign companies to increase oil production. Bondholders who bought Venezuelan debt betting on a quick normalisation of relations with the west should share the country’s pain. There must be no recognition of an illegitimate government.
The Venezuelan people have shown bravery and courage in taking to the streets in largely peaceful protests to defend their votes. The west and the rest of Latin America should stand behind them. To look the other way would be to rubber-stamp the consolidation of a corrupt Moscow-aligned dictatorship on the Caribbean and to risk triggering a fresh wave of destabilising migration.