Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 US presidential race has kicked off a six month race to solidify his administration’s foreign policy achievements, particularly in the two areas most likely to shift dramatically under a Donald Trump presidency: the Middle East and Ukraine.
Biden’s much-anticipated move over the weekend will see his power ebb away over the remainder of his term, transforming him into a so-called lame duck president. But while this could decrease his leverage with foreign interlocutors, it could also free him from political constraints and allow him to act with more freedom on the world stage.
“This will be similar to what it’s like in the eighth year of a two-term presidency,” said Richard Fontaine, chief executive of the Center for a New American Security think-tank in Washington. “You’re still commander-in-chief . . . and you still have the power of the United States at your disposal . . . but the world adjusts.”
The first test of Biden’s new normal will come this week when he meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington. The meeting, Netanyahu’s first at the White House since he returned to power in late 2022, presents Biden with a chance to advance what could be his most significant legacy: an end to the war between Israel and Hamas.
“If you look at the next six months, one of the most important things for Biden is to get the war in Gaza over, to get to the day after,” said Dennis Ross, distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“This administration, in some ways, is going to be more free to do that, and the people in it are going to have even more of a sense of mission to get it accomplished as a way of showing what they were able to do,” he added.
Vice-president Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic party nominee, will hold a separate meeting with the Israeli prime minister as she seeks to bolster her own reputation on the world stage. She will not preside over his address to congress due to a conflicting campaign event but will meet him later in the week, one of her aides said, adding that she will continue “intensive engagement” on the conflict in Gaza.
While most world leaders have met her, much of the administration’s foreign policy has been concentrated within a small circle of presidential aides and at the US national security council. A Biden-brokered ceasefire deal would allow Harris to avoid the issue on the campaign trail.
Netanyahu has telegraphed ahead of his visit that he will deliver a more conciliatory speech to Congress on Wednesday than he did when he addressed the body in 2015 and famously lambasted the Obama administration for pursuing a nuclear deal with Iran.
The prime minister wants to build American public support for Israel’s war effort, a goal that has been made more challenging with the US political turmoil of the past fortnight.
Meanwhile, Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race has sparked fears among some diplomats and foreign policy experts that adversaries such as Russia, Iran and China might take advantage of the transition.
On Monday his administration sought to reassure US allies, with National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson saying, “nothing will change about our efforts to stand up to autocrats and adversaries”.
One crucial priority for Biden will be to ensure that he guarantees as much support as he can for Ukraine in case of a Trump win in November. The former president has vowed to withhold military aid to Ukraine unless it enters negotiations with Russia.
Officials and analysts said it was unlikely that the administration could push through another package of aid for Kyiv before the end of Biden’s term — earlier this year Congress passed a $61bn aid package that was meant to last until early 2025. But the president can ensure that bilateral deals with Ukraine are completed and push any aid that is available to Kyiv before his term ends.
“There’s no way to Trump-proof the relationship . . . you can accelerate certain deliveries . . . but the bottom line is, if Trump were to win the election, he’s going to be in a position to control the flow of military aid,” said Fontaine.
Jim Townsend, a former senior Pentagon official who focused on Europe and Nato, said Biden could help cement his reputation by making trips that draw attention to American assistance for Ukraine, such being in Kyiv when US F-16s arrive in the country.
“There’s things Biden can take credit for that are important for his legacy, but they’re important for people to see,” Townsend said.
Being free from the constraints of campaigning will also give him more time to focus on foreign policy in the coming months, which some analysts say will allow the president bolster his image on the world stage.
“I actually think the world will see Biden as less of a lame duck president, at least between now and November, than they did a week ago,” said Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Haass added much of the world had already written Biden off and assumed Trump would win the presidency. But “now that it looks like Kamala Harris is going to be the Democratic candidate, the outcome of the November election suddenly seems much less certain”.
With his decision to drop out of the race “Biden has probably increased his leverage, because now there’s the possibility that he might be succeeded by someone who’s largely in line with him, as opposed to someone who might undo a good deal of what he stood for”, Haass said.