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The stories that matter on money and politics in the race for the White House
US vice-president Kamala Harris is now the heavy favourite to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic party’s presidential candidate to fight Donald Trump in this year’s election.
Biden has endorsed her, as have other Democratic politicians once considered possible candidates for the nomination, including swing state governors Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.
According to “an incomplete and unofficial tally” of delegates to the Democratic National Convention compiled by the Associated Press, Harris now also has an overwhelming majority of support with a small remainder undecided, as of Monday afternoon.
We know less about how Harris would fare against Trump in November’s election. But data from prediction markets, polls and approval ratings hint at her odds against the former president. In many ways, they appear similar to those of Biden before his politically fatal debate performance on June 27.
Traders on the political prediction market PredictIt view Trump as a clear but not prohibitive favourite to win back the White House: as of Monday afternoon he was trading at about 60 per cent. Harris was trading at about 40 per cent, just shy of Biden’s own figure before the debate. Those same traders see Harris as having an 87 per cent chance of winning the Democratic party nomination.
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That gap between Harris and Trump is reflected in survey data. A Financial Times average of polls shows Harris trailing Trump by about 3 percentage points, a gap that has tightened in recent weeks. The gap is similar to what existed between Biden and Trump before Sunday.
But notes of caution are needed: there are few of these polls and they concern a once-hypothetical match-up rather than the actual, contested campaign unfolding now.
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Biden and Harris have also resembled each other in their approval ratings, which have moved together over the course of Biden’s term, with Harris typically lagging somewhat below the president.
That has changed in recent days, with Biden achieving a personal record-low approval rating, according to averages from FiveThirtyEight.
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With more than 100 days until the US election on November 5, the data above will certainly change and change again — perhaps dramatically, if recent history is any guide.
As Harris herself said, Monday was “the first full day of our campaign”.
Additional research by Jonathan Vincent