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Britain will go to the polls on Thursday with Sir Keir Starmer predicted to win power in a historic Labour landslide, leaving Rishi Sunak’s Conservative party facing one of the worst defeats in its history.
A series of opinion polls suggested that Starmer was on course to win a majority of more than 200 — beating Sir Tony Blair’s 179 majority in 1997 — and giving Labour its first election victory since 2005.
Polling stations open at 7am and close at 10pm — although anyone still queueing will be able to vote — by which point the scale of Sunak’s expected defeat will become clear. Polls suggest the Tories could win fewer seats than the 156 they won in 1906, their previous worst result.
Even before any votes had been counted, Sunak’s close ministerial ally Mel Stride declared that the election was “likely to see the largest Labour landslide majority that this country has ever seen”.
Sunak has warned of the dangers of giving Labour a “supermajority” in a last-ditch attempt by the prime minister to persuade voters to stick with the Tories and to ensure his party could at least provide an effective opposition.
The mood of despair hanging over the Conservative election campaign — a six-week catalogue of errors and self-inflicted damage — intensified on the eve of poll when Rupert Murdoch’s Sun gave its support to Starmer. “The Tories are exhausted,” the tabloid newspaper said.
It was compounded by a series of MRP mega-polls suggesting that Labour would win by an unprecedented margin.
A YouGov poll on Wednesday was typical, projecting Labour would win 431 seats compared with the Conservatives winning just 102 and the Liberal Democrats winning a record 72, beating the 62 the party won in 2005.
The survey gave Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party just three seats, but the populist party has been draining support away from the Conservatives across the country, helping to facilitate a Labour win. The Scottish National party was forecast to fall into second place in Scotland with 18 seats, behind Labour.
Under the YouGov scenario a series of big Conservative names would be toppled, including chancellor Jeremy Hunt, defence secretary Grant Shapps and Leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt.
Liz Truss, former Tory prime minister, is locked in a tight race with Labour in her Norfolk seat, although the polls suggest that Sunak himself should hold on to his Richmond seat in Yorkshire.
Ahead of what looks likely to be one of the bleakest nights in Tory history, Sunak admitted that some voters were out for revenge after years of squeezed living standards, poor public services and political chaos.
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“I appreciate people have frustrations with our party, of course I do. We haven’t got everything perfectly right,” he said. But he added: “Tomorrow’s vote is not a by-election on the past, it is a vote about the future.”
Some Conservatives are already discussing the battle for control of the party in the ashes of defeat, with former home secretary Suella Braverman calling for a more Faragist approach.
Boris Johnson, former Tory prime minister, has also belatedly entered the election fray and has warned against any rapprochement with Farage, whom he called “Putin’s pet parrot”.
Labour strategists fear that some voters may decide to stay at home on Thursday on the grounds that the result of the election already appears certain. Starmer on Wednesday called Stride’s comments “voter suppression” and an attempt “to get people to stay home rather than go out and vote”.
Sunak hopes some Tory waverers will come back into the fold, warning repeatedly that an untrammelled Labour government would put up taxes and reopen Johnson’s Brexit deal, allowing a return of free movement.
With many constituencies on a knife-edge, the final result is far from clear and the Conservatives could yet fare better than opinion polls suggest. Labour has had a consistent 20 point lead.
There is a darker and much less likely scenario for Sunak — within the margin of error of some polls — where the Tories crash to such a bad result that they finish third behind Sir Ed Davey’s Lib Dems.
A final MRP poll by Focaldata gave Labour a 238-seat majority, while a More in Common survey gave Starmer’s party a 210-seat margin of victory. A JLP poll gave Labour a 234-seat majority.
If the polls are correct, Starmer’s victory would be confirmed in the early hours of Friday morning with a transfer of power from the Conservatives to Labour taking place later on Friday.