Manchester United will slip to a seventh straight away league defeat at Brentford, says Jones Knows who also sees Leicester nicking a point at Arsenal.
Aston Villa vs Everton, Saturday 12.30pm
For the sake of Everton’s away form, there is a hope that Frank Lampard has taken a long look into the mirror over the summer. As a Premier League manager the way Lampard sets his teams up on the road has been staggeringly bad when you assess the defensive numbers.
In 38 games as a boss at the top-level with a Chelsea side that went on to win the Champions League just six months after he left and at Everton, Lampard’s teams’ have shipped 73 goals on the road, working out at an average of 1.92 goals conceded every 90 minutes.
That needs to change.
And I’m willing to give Lampard, a highly intelligent man it must be added, the benefit of the doubt in that regard based on the signings of James Tarkowski and Conor Coady. Surely there will be an ethos of being harder to beat, with early signs against Chelsea relatively positive.
With Aston Villa’s lack of attacking guile, Everton having no-one to score a goal and a strong likelihood of them playing with a great emphasis on being defensively sound, a low-scoring encounter is fancied at Villa Park.
Unfortunately this has been noted by the markets where the under 2.5 goals line is a skinny 8/11 with Sky Bet so there is no real enthusiasm for me to get involved. Those hunting a bigger price to follow may like the look of the draw and under 2.5 goals in the match at 100/30.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Arsenal vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
If you required any further evidence to showcase that Arsenal are expected to challenge for a top-four place this season, just look at their price for this game: Mikel Arteta’s men are 1/2 with Sky Bet to beat a dangerous Leicester City side that have players within their ranks that clubs are seemingly willing to spend obscene amounts of money on.
Based on those odds, Arsenal have a 66.7 per cent chance of registering a victory. Despite their very resolute showing at Selhurst Park, where William Saliba and Aaron Ramsdale came to the fore, that number feels a little high to me.
I’ve been swimming against a very anti-Leicester narrative for the past few weeks (have backed them for a top six finish) therefore I feel obliged to follow them in here to get a result. For 60 minutes against Brentford last weekend, I felt very smug as they looked an impressive outfit. Best forget about the last 30 minutes.
Brendan Rodgers’ men have failed to score in just one of their last 13 games, scoring 23 goals in total and failed to trouble the scorers in just two of their 19 away Premier League games last season, meaning Arsenal will have to match or even be more resolute than they were at Crystal Palace. At the prices, Leicester are fancied to get a result.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Brighton vs Newcastle, Saturday 3pm
This may prove to be the most entertaining game of the weekend. We have two squads full of confidence that are becoming used to winning football matches.
Only Man City (26), Liverpool (24) and Tottenham (23) have won more points than Brighton since April whilst Newcastle’s haul of 41 points from 20 Premier League games in 2022 is only bettered by Liverpool (52), Man City (46) and Tottenham (44).
- Two Super 6 players correctly predicted the first five scorelines and found themselves in contention of landing the £1million from West Ham vs Manchester City. No player had predicted the 0-2 outcome and so the jackpot was not claimed…
Brighton aren’t to be trusted at home just yet though, scoring just 19 at the Amex last season, so with the Toon priced up as outsiders at 2/1 with Sky Bet they are taken to edge this one with Joe Willock catching my eye with his shots/goals prices.
Eddie Howe has found the perfect role for him in his system where he can utilise his clever runs into dangerous areas. It’s taking him into great positions which has rocketed his shots per game and expected goals average since the turn of the year, yet his prices across the markets remain very appealing for a player of his attacking intent.
Joe Willock celebrates his equaliser for Newcastle at West Ham
Since mid-January he leads the way for Newcastle in terms of shots-per-90 (2.27) and looked like a man playing with great confidence and zip in the win over Nottingham Forest, having three shots with an expected goals return of 0.19 and notching seven touches in the opposition box.
Along with Callum Wilson, who remains of interest in all goalscoring markets too, Willock is one of Newcastle’s most likely routes to goal. That makes his price of 7/1 with Sky Bet to score anytime rather silly in a game Newcastle are very much fancied to get something from.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Joe Willock to score (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Manchester City vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Anyone for 40/1 with Sky Bet on a Bournemouth victory?
This is a team that are unbeaten in their last nine league games, winning each of last four without conceding, including surprising many onlookers with their performance at home to Aston Villa at the top level last weekend.
Anyone? No, OK then. Best to swerve the match markets then.
With City now having the weapon of Erling Haaland – providing pace in behind and ruthless finishing – opposition managers are going to rewrite the book on football tactics to provide a problem for Pep Guardiola’s men. Defend deep and pray, will probably be Scott Parker’s methodology.
Those thinking about backing the possibility of Pep’s boys racking up a cricket score should take note of the predicted 32°C temperature in Manchester on Saturday. Conserving energy will be key in such unnaturally hot conditions, so this may have an effect on whether City decide to put their foot fully down on the accelerator.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
Southampton vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
My faith in Ralph Hasenhuttl to get Southampton rolling and playing with confidence and threat at some stage of this season should be enough to keep Saints above the drop zone. However, with so much change being implemented they are easy to oppose in their current form. If they lose on Saturday, they will equal a club record six consecutive league defeats, albeit across two different seasons.
My main worry for them in the short-term is the time taken for an already shaky defensive unit to become accustomed to playing in front of a very inexperienced young goalkeeper in Gavin Bazunu, who looks a serious talent but like any goalkeeper will need time to understand the demands and pressure of playing at this level. Although he didn’t make any mistakes against Tottenham, I thought he looked very nervy across all aspects of his game.
With that in mind and considering Southampton’s horrendous defensive record of late that has seen them concede 34 goals in their last 14 Premier League games, I’d point people in the direction of backing goals.
All of this equates to the 10/11 available on both teams scoring and the game to produce over 2.5 goals – a bet which has landed in five of Saints’ last six games – rating as a solid betting tactic to almost double your money.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Wolves vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm
Although it won’t gain much attention in the wider media, this feels like a massive game for Wolves and their boss Bruno Lage, who has overseen a return of just two points in the last 24 available stretching across eight games. The pressure is on.
The Molineux faithful have been served up some dross too with a disappointing draw against Norwich and defeats to Brighton and Leeds still fresh in the memory no doubt despite the start of a new campaign. Performances have not been there to fall back on either, illustrated by an expected goals metric at home of 21.81 last season – only Norwich posted a lower total.
Lage remains popular and will have his name chanted, with the anger from the stands more directed at the owners and management side of the club after a lack of backing for the boss.
And a fully pumped-up Fulham side, fresh from a hugely impressive and exciting performance against Liverpool, isn’t an ideal opponent when any sort of win will be demanded by the home fans.
Marco Silva isn’t someone that tweaks his system to accommodate playing away from home, so I’m expecting Fulham to carry on where they left off last weekend. Here we have a side that were the top away scorers in all four divisions (50) last season – scoring four more than next best Wigan (46). Fragile Wolves are very vulnerable. Fulham look a lovely price to me at 2/1 with Sky Bet.
I’m also looking to use my ‘inexperienced referee’ theory to boost the price on Fulham to 7/1 in the hope he’s in for a busy afternoon.
John Brooks has only taken charge of four Premier League games before, averaging a whopping 5.25 cards per 90 minutes. Players are very aware of the referee’s inexperience at the top level and that, added to a stricter approach where an eager to impress ref lacks the authority to allow the game to flow, does make the chances for cards very appealing.
In what could be an aggressive game played in a pressurised environment, adding the game to produce 50 or more booking points (10 for a yellow, 25 for a red) makes perfect sense.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Fulham to win and over 50 booking points in match (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Brentford vs Manchester United, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Manchester United are a shambles. But you already knew that. They have dominated the news agenda all week. There is no need to go there.
Are things about to dramatically improve this weekend? Not when there is a well-coached team in opposition.
Brentford have won 22 points since March – only six Premier League teams have won more. At 11/4 with Sky Bet they are surely worth a swing such is the lack of cohesion and strategy at such a fallen giant, who remain being priced up on the name of the club rather than on-field performances.
Another loss here would make it seven away wins on the spin – something that hasn’t happened since 1936.
One potential area of betting interest I’ll be keeping a close eye over the next few weeks is Manchester United’s lack of height, organisation and physicality when defending set pieces.
They played like a team without a plan for much of their defeat from Brighton, including the way they set up defending Brighton’s set piece attacks. Both Lewis Dunk and Adam Webster had efforts on goal from such situations and you can guarantee that Brentford, a very shrewdly coached team, will be looking to cause a threat in the same way. Pontus Jansson is usually the man charging in looking for the first contact – he averaged 0.6 shots per 90 minutes last season, along with grabbing three goals himself.
Saturday 13th August 5:00pm
Kick off 5:30pm
United’s overall record at defending set pieces in 2022 is actually quite strong – only Manchester City (0) have conceded fewer goals this calendar year than United’s two. So, that was enough to resist me officially pulling the trigger on a bet but the 11/10 for a Jansson shot and the 14/1 on him to score anytime are certainly worth a second look for those hunting an angle in.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Jumping to hard conclusions at this time of season rarely bodes well from a betting bank balance perspective, that’s why I’m happy to forgive Nottingham Forest for such a limp and timid performance at Newcastle last weekend.
Steve Cooper’s men produced an expected goals figure of just 0.28 from five shots on goal at St James’ Park and were completely dominated in key areas of the pitch, especially in midfield where Joelinton and Bruno Guimaraes showed Forest how to boss a Premier League game.
I’m expecting much greater fizz, enthusiasm and spark from Cooper’s boys as Premier League football returns to the City Ground for the first time in 23 years and 82 days, the longest-ever gap between a team’s matches in Premier League history. Of Forest’s starting line-up last week, Brennan Johnson and Neco Williams had not even been born the last time Forest were playing at this level and the average cost of a pint of lager was £1.90. The glory years.
I’m expecting a raucous, cup-like, atmosphere – something David Moyes will be keen for his team to manage in the opening exchanges. They have the experience and class in midfield with the exceptional Declan Rice to handle themselves early on and then take over as the game progresses.
The Hammers scored 55 per cent of their goals after half-time last season and the Evens for the second half to produce the most goals makes sense for those looking to attack a market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Chelsea vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The most courageous act is still to think for yourself. Aloud.
It’s time to put that into practice.
No matter how scary it sounds to be putting ultra faith in Tottenham to win a football match at Stamford Bridge, if I’m fully invested in the theory that Spurs are a threat in every competition they play in this season then I simply must back them to beat an undercooked and underwhelming Chelsea side as the outsiders at 21/10 with Sky Bet.
Many of you will be screaming at me right now to point out that Chelsea have lost just one of the last 32 league meetings at home with Spurs, winning 21. But this is a new era at Tottenham with Antonio Conte at the helm. They are going places and are playing with supreme energy whilst Chelsea – on evidence of the last six months – are stagnating.
This is a perfect time for Spurs to be heading to west London.
Thomas Tuchel clearly isn’t happy with the tools at his disposal ahead of the transfer window closing and that was stamped all over their slow and steady showing in the 1-0 win over Everton.
There seemed a lack of attacking imagination and cohesion as they stumbled to an expected goals (non penalties) figure of just 0.86 – quite a staggeringly low amount considering they won 16 corners in the match against a team that can’t defend set pieces. A lack of imagination in forward areas has been a worry in 2022. Chelsea have scored just 34 goals from an expected figure of 32.1 since the turn of the year with Liverpool (46), Man City (50) and Tottenham (51) all showing far greater numbers in the final third.
With Chelsea’s defence still performing amongst the best in the Premier League and Spurs very unlikely to run away with the game, I’m happy to be greedy and boost the price by backing Conte’s men to win by one goal at 7/2.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Tottenham to win by one goal (7/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
If Liverpool bring the same lack of zip, physicality, desire and pressing to the table in their 2-2 draw with Fulham, then those taking the 1/4 with Sky Bet on a home win could be about to go through some financial pain.
A team that usually averaged 19.1 shots per game in the Premier League over the past year and that registers an expected goals figure of 2.50 fell way short of their usual standards, posting just 11 shots and an xG of 1.23. They also recorded the lowest distance ran by any team last weekend and were outrun by Fulham by a margin of just under 7km – only Aston Villa (7km) and Wolves (8.6km) were outrun by a greater distance on the opening weekend.
Jurgen Klopp will have been privately fuming and embarrassed by those numbers.
That makes this absolutely terrible timing for Crystal Palace to head to Anfield. A reaction is expected.
Despite beginning their season with defeat against Arsenal, there were encouraging signs for Patrick Vieira’s side in their approach play but I’m yet to truly be convinced they will score enough goals to seriously make any inroads into the top eight this season.
The Reds have conceded just four goals in their last 14 Premier League home games and a fourth straight win without conceding at home to Palace is expected (4/5 with Sky Bet).