One poll worth reading | Financial Times

Well, now that we are over the latest unnecessary shutdown drama, back to our regularly scheduled political analysis.

Most public polls have Trump and Joe Biden tied. But a recent piece of research by Democracy Corps, the political consultancy run by Democratic strategists Stan Greenberg and James Carville, found that when voters are willing to watch 90 minutes of presidential videos (meaning clips of both Biden and Trump) and then polled on their sentiment about both candidates after, Biden comes out with a small but significant six-point lead.

A few things struck me when reading through the findings. First, while both Democrats and Republicans hold to their usual positions on most issues, Biden wins hands down on helping working people and running government in the public interest.

The variety of voters’ worries at the moment seem to help Democrats, too. People are concerned about inflation and immigration, but also climate change, families and children, civil rights being under attack, and the future of democracy. “Those worries are part of complex dynamics producing favourable results for Democrats and Biden,” the report reads. Perhaps this is because Trump spends the majority of his time slamming Biden rather than addressing voters’ concerns, and more moderate Republicans who also try to hit out against Biden, poll poorly next to Trump.

The exception there was Nikki Haley. The voters surveyed had a chance to see clips of her, as well as Vivek Ramaswamy and a few other Republican primary candidates. Only Haley had a significant uptick in support from those polled after they viewed more clips. Interestingly, she gets a strong response from both Republicans and Democrats, and the biggest increase in popularity of any candidate. Evangelicals like her on abortion, despite her calls for moderation, and Cheney Republicans like her on Ukraine. “She is the one candidate who would change the structure of the race,” according to the pollsters.

Republicans would do well to take note, because their brand as a whole gains nothing when voters watch more clips of Trump. Brand Blue, however, gets a boost on topics like helping families deal with healthcare costs, the economy being strong, and democracy being secure after participants see Biden clips. The president also makes some gains with Black and Hispanic people who watch the videos. 

That supports — in my mind — for what I said in last Friday’s Swamp Note: “let Biden be Biden.” People that see the president, like him, particularly in comparison with Trump. Of course, few voters will actually watch 90 minutes of clips (which I find so sad), so Democrats could do a few things to help, like talk more about how much they’ve done economically in clear and simple ways.

Editor of The New Republic Michael Tomasky recently pointed to research from Navin Nayak, the head of the Center for American Progress Action Fund, who looked at every press release, Facebook post, and tweet put out in 2022 by Democratic candidates for federal office and found that only 5 per cent mentioned the word “economy” or “economics.” Even when you include words like “workers” or “wages” or “jobs,” that number only rises to 11 per cent.  

That’s nuts. Sixty-eight per cent of the population actually supports Biden’s core message of investing in the middle class versus 32 per cent for the Republican message of investing in business and letting wealth trickle down. Not only are Democrats not talking about the economy, they aren’t talking about it clearly and simply in a unified voice.

I think Biden should be trotted out more in the right places (like a picket line, which went over incredibly well), and all Democrats should be talking about rewarding “work not wealth” and building from the “bottom up and middle out.”

As for Republicans, they should ditch Trump for Haley, though I’m not holding my breath for that.

Alec, if you had to offer up simple messaging advice for both parties what would it be?

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Alec Russell responds

Rana, greetings from London. I am afraid I am going to sidestep your question, first because of history, and second because of the unhappy fallout of the deal to avert a government shutdown.

As for history, I remember only too well the disastrous record of Brits sitting in London and giving advice on the US presidential election. Back in 2004, the Guardian — then a British news organisation rather than the more international operation it is now — decided to try to put concerned global readers in touch with undecided voters in Clark County, Ohio. Their hope was to try to persuade them to turn out for Senator John Kerry in the presidential race. Well, come election day, that didn’t work out so well — either for the senator or for his support base in Clark County.

More importantly, while I share your frustration with, as you rightly put it, the “unnecessary shutdown drama”, the eleventh-hour compromise on Capitol Hill has had deeply troubling consequences. For months, European policymakers and most of all Ukrainians have been worrying about the chances of “war fatigue” in America. And now here is the first concrete sign of just that. The temporary measure agreed over the weekend excluded $6bn in military aid for Kyiv. President Joe Biden raced to the microphone to insist that nothing fundamental has changed. Ukrainian officials also sought to play down the implications. But when you put this alongside the results of this weekend’s elections in Slovakia, where former prime minister Robert Fico won on an anti-Ukraine platform, then Kyiv’s European allies have reason to be looking over their shoulder.

The real fear in Europe though, Rana, is that the manoeuvring of the “radical Republicans” is a harbinger of what Donald Trump will argue for on the campaign trail — and then deliver if he is elected in November 2024. So, to return to your question, I can say what I would like the Republicans’ messaging to be next year, but I see no chance of it being echoed.

As for the Biden campaign’s, we just have to hope that an appeal to decency convinces enough people. Otherwise there will be celebrations in Moscow and despair in Kyiv. And in that case, when the history of the decline in US support for Ukraine is written, this weekend’s deal on Capitol Hill will be seen as an unhappy turning point.

Your feedback

And now a word from our Swampians . . .

In response to “Bring on the TikTok Biden . . .”:
“With regard to [Biden’s] age, what is the point of replacement for the sake of perception when achievements speaks so much louder. Biden has been a far more effective president than his predecessor and has been far wilier than Obama. Only Biden can beat Trump because he owns this successful administration.” — Ketish Pothalingam