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Elliot David returns with five selections from Lingfield and Newcastle, with both meetings live on Sky Sports Racing!
BUTTERFLY EFFECT – 3.15 Lingfield
George Scott spoke on Sky Sports Racing last week and during that interview commented on how much he rated Benoit de la Sayette, and that he’d be looking to utilise his claim whenever the in-demand young rider was available. He does so here, and I think his daughter of James Garfield could be of interest back at the scene of her eye-catching debut effort back in June.
She looked to have been handled with care with an opening mark in mind thereafter, but a slow start from stall 9 of 11 at Wolverhampton in October effectively ended her handicap debut before it began. She was dropped 2lb for that and with Benoit claiming 3lb is effectively a useful 5lb lower than for that handicap debut.
She’s again drawn a bit wide, but the additional furlong in addition to a smaller field should see her able to overcome that in my view. What’s more, we’ve seemingly got plenty of pace in this small field with Outrace, Mickey Mongoose and Margaret’s Fuchsia all showing a liking for pressing on.
That could see this race set up nicely for a horse ridden with more restraint and could somewhat negate her slow starting tendency if she shows it once more. I’d see it as a positive that she’s had 155 days off, having run her best races when fresh on debut and coming off a 77-day break in September.
STAR OF COTAI – 3.45 Lingfield
This daughter of Cotai Glory made her handicap debut over course and distance just six days ago, showing a marked improvement on three qualifying runs that saw her well beaten. Despite a wide berth in stall 12, she took a prominent position under Saffie Osborne, but just looked to get momentarily tapped for toe by horses sling-shotting off the Lingfield bend entering the straight. I’d always favour a position slightly wider on the track at Lingfield, away from what can be a slower part of the track on the rail and that may have found her out.
The two horses that came past her, Wildfell and Harry The Haggler, were both very well backed on their own respective handicap debuts and with the 5th-placed runner Eight Mile reappearing to win well since, it’s a race that may work out well.
Dam Triggers Broom has a history of producing some useful performers, with each of Star Of Cotai’s four siblings winners on track and notably in the form of 2020 Middle Park Stakes winner Supremacy. Each of the four achieved a peak rating of 89 or higher.
Clearly, it’s a talented family but this filly looks to have been far more of a slow burner, having still shown one or two signs of inexperience on that handicap debut last time out. She’s evidently in good heart, as Ed Walker sends her out quickly sporting first time cheekpieces which may just sharpen the concentration. His runners in first time cheekpieces are 6-37 with a further 9 placed efforts but interestingly, all 6 winners came at Class 5 or 6 level where the stats are 29% (6-21) to a level stakes profit of £16.75.
FIFTY SENT – 5:30 Newcastle
This is an interesting runner on his first start for Michael Dods having left Michael Bell in an 8,000gns HIT Sales purchase in October. Having shown little in the early part of his career, the four-year-old looked to be showing signs of improvement in his final two starts for the Newmarket handler, culminating in a solid 2nd behind an in-form rival at Yarmouth.
All 7 starts for Bell saw him ridden well off the pace and he just struggled to get involved. That career best in October coincided with a step back up to 1m2f, the trip over which he starts out here and I’d say the stiff nature of Newcastle’s finish would be to suit.
The Yarmouth run isn’t a bad piece of form, with winner Richard P Smith now rated 14lb higher on a mark of 76 and in reality that was something of an impossible task against a rival clearly thrown in. If we get a decent price about him here, I think be a good prospect for a small each-way investment up against a bunch of predominantly exposed rivals.
I’ll also give a brief mention for Ruth Carr’s Alhabor and Rebecca Menzies’ Heatherdown Hero, both of whom also make their first starts for new connections and each have claims if returning to their best. It’ll be a race where market signals should be noted.
CAMUSDARACH – 7:00 Newcastle
All eyes are going to be on Charlie Johnston’s son of Footstepsinthesand, as it’s safe to say this horse is a bit of a character. He’s shown signs of temperament on several occasions in his young career, unruly pre-race on debut at Epsom before being withdrawn at the start before his intended second start at Yarmouth on August 28. A trip to the vets for a gelding op unsurprisingly followed hot on the tails of that misbehaviour.
Unfortunately for connections, he clearly decided to protest that decision when unseating his rider and sustaining a minor injury in a paddock incident on October 14 which saw him yet again withdrawn, a 120-day break followed.
Thankfully, two starts in November saw him begin to show signs of mellowing somewhat and he returns following a wind op. If he can behave himself in the prelims, this ought to be a well-handicapped animal off a rating of 72. Out of dam Antebellum he’s a half-brother to a pair of smart winners in French Group 3 winner Monty and 2018 Easter Classic winner Victory Bond.
He rather bumped into one when finding Stan Moore’s Raintown too good over course & distance, that rival winning both subsequent starts to be rated 80, and he can get off the mark under top weight with Jason Hart in the plate here.
BEELZEBUB – 8:00 Newcastle
Though course winners Lupset Flossy Flop and Northern Spirit will be lurking to pick up the pieces should they fluff their lines, I think the two handicap debutants atop the weights are the ones to focus on here.
I’m going to side with James Ferguson’s Dark Angel gelding, coming off the back of a short break following victory on his third start in early December. That win and improvement was consistent with a progressive horse, having stepped forward on each start to date and that’s something we can’t necessarily day for key opponent Saracen Head.
Ferguson’s charge debuted in a warm Newbury Maiden that has since began to show itself as one of the deepest late season races you’re likely to see. The 16 runners have made 21 subsequent starts, resulting in 7 wins and 6 further placed efforts, clearly a good race for the level and worth keeping an eye on.
While Beelzebub has improved significantly with each run since that eye-catching debut, Hugo Palmer’s colt threw in a lesser effort at Wolverhampton on February 27 and now has a little bit to prove. Ferguson may have a good line on the form having seen another of his horses in Engelbert finish 3rd behind Saracen Head at Newcastle in February and at this stage, the former is the horse I’d be siding with.
