DK Metcalf left the Seahawks’ win over the Chargers last week with a knee injury, but he participated in walk-throughs and is questionable for Sunday. Geno Smith still put up an incredible passing attack (20 of 27 passing for 210 yards and two touchdowns) without Metcalf for most of the game, and continues to be a top-10 quarterback in nearly every category. Pick: Seahawks -3
Green Bay Packers (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-1), 8:20 p.m., NBC
Line: Bills -10.5 | Total: 47
Buffalo, now the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, has a way of turning even venerated quarterbacks into underdogs. Before the Bills’ Week 6 drubbing of Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes had never been a home underdog. This week, it’s the first time in Aaron Rodgers’s 18-year career that he has entered a game as a double-digit underdog.
That owes as much to the Packers’ recent struggles as it does to the Bills’ prowess. Green Bay’s three-game slide hit a new low against Washington last week, with the Packers managing just 232 yards of total offense and going 0 for 6 on third downs. The Bills had a Week 7 bye, yet the market still moved this number from 8 to as high as 11.5 early this week based solely on the Packers’ performance against the Commanders. If the number keeps climbing, bettors will most likely buy back on the Packers at 13, and at that number we’d pick Green Bay as well. Until then, we’re sticking with the Bills. Pick: Bills -10.5
Sunday’s Other Games
Denver Broncos (2-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5), 9:30 a.m., ESPN+
Line: Jaguars -2.5 | Total: 39
The Jaguars, playing the franchise’s ninth game in London, should be no strangers to adjusting to the overseas trip while the Broncos will schlep from a much farther distance. Despite this technically being a neutral field, this week we gave the Jaguars a half point. Early action favored the Jaguars, who have received the most bets so far. That might be the public betting against the Broncos, who scored only 9 points playing without Russell Wilson last week in a loss to the Jets. That game was a huge loss for sportsbooks because a ton of money came in on the Jets. Most of the money so far this week, however, has been wagered on the Broncos, and the Jaguars have gone from 4 point favorites to 2.5.
Despite the narrow defeat, Denver managed to come within one play of victory thanks to a heroic effort from their defense, who enter this week the third-best in the league. Wilson is listed as questionable but participated in practice in London on Wednesday and said he was ready to “rock and roll.” We picked Denver last week, and we aren’t afraid to pick them again. Pick: Broncos +2.5