Rishi Sunak’s ‘unity’ bid is stronger this time around

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Good morning. Rishi Sunak has taken a huge step closer to Downing Street, after Boris Johnson’s third attempt to become Conservative leader ended in failure and derision. Some more thoughts on all of that in today’s note.

Inside Politics is edited by Georgina Quach. Follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenkb and please send gossip, thoughts and feedback to [email protected].

That joke isn’t funny anymore

George Parker has written a brilliant account of how Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign crumbled. The former prime minister bowed out insisting he had the required 100 nominations (102 in fact) to make the ballot, but realised he would not be able to form a stable government.

That 102 figure is 43 more than the 59 publicly declared supporters, inviting some well-deserved scepticism about whether or not Johnson ever really could have made the ballot.

For what little it’s worth, I think Johnson certainly did have 102 “promises” from MPs: but many of them were promises secured not through affection but fear. Thinking that they had to choose between either being on the Johnson train or under it, MPs had made undertakings that they would support the former prime minister’s unlikely return.

A number of events meant that many of those MPs started to ask for proof of funds: for the Johnson train to show it was capable of leaving the station, as it were. When you are a candidate whose pitch is essentially a combination of “I can win the general election” and “I am going to win this leadership election, so you better watch out”, the second it becomes clear that neither of those things are true, your coalition of support is going to start to fray rather quickly.

The reality is that Johnson’s chances of getting on the ballot were going into decline. Three MPs I spoke to on Friday who were grimly resigned to backing Johnson had, by Sunday morning, realised that his operation was falling apart.

But the other big difference was the behaviour of Johnson’s main opponent, Rishi Sunak, who has secured more than 140 publicly declared backers. As George explains:

Johnson tried in vain to strike a “deal” with Rishi Sunak, the clear frontrunner in the contest to succeed Liz Truss. Unsurprisingly, the former chancellor was not overly impressed by the idea that he should stand aside to make way for Johnson’s triumphant return.

Johnson told Sunak he was certain to secure nominations from 100 Tory MPs to allow him to enter the contest. He insisted he was then most likely to triumph, once a final decision was handed over to the party’s members, many of whom still adore him.

“Rishi needs to put on his ‘big boy trousers’,” one ally of Johnson had said. But Sunak declined the invitation, noting that he had already secured more than twice as many supporters as his rival.

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One of the big mistakes that Sunak made in the summer leadership race, and one of the mistakes that politicians often make, was to seek unity when what he needed was a mandate. Throughout the summer, Sunak talked so fulsomely about Johnson, it was hard to understand why he had felt it necessary to resign from his government in the first place.

This time, Sunak is behaving differently. His campaign is aiming for the largest number of MPs, but not at the expense of sacrificing a clear position. MPs seeking specific reassurance on spending commitments say they have been rebuffed. And when Sunak talks about the importance of “integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level” of the government he leads, it is as clear a repudiation of Johnson as you could expect to see.

The former chancellor will face major challenges if, as now seems all but inevitable, he becomes party leader later today. But he has a much better chance of actually uniting the Conservative party behind his plans now, in large part because he acquired a new steeliness since the summer.

Now try this

I went to the new branch of St John, the influential London restaurant in Marylebone. It’s lovely, and if you are visiting London it is very convenient for the city centre, though the Smithfield hub will always be my favourite. Fergus Henderson, the restaurant’s founder, was the subject of an excellent Lunch with the FT back in 2019 by Natalie Whittle.

I also watched Jodie Whittaker’s final episode as Doctor Who. It was a bit of an overstuffed mess in a lot of ways, but a very fun one.

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Top stories today

• In for a Penny | Sunak’s only declared rival for the job, leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt, is backed by fewer than 30 Tory MPs. Last night there was a fierce debate within Mordaunt’s camp over whether she should immediately give her support to Sunak, in the interests of party unity, or keep seeking nominations. Her team said she won’t withdraw.

• Deficit and deadlock | Eight months of political limbo and the impact of soaring inflation on energy prices and public sector pay have left a nearly £700mn hole in Northern Ireland’s finances as a deadline to call fresh elections looms.

• Banks withdraw mortgages | In the wake of the “mini” Budget, banks have pulled 60 per cent of mortgages for borrowers with small deposits since the start of the year, making it harder for first-time buyers to get a foot on the property ladder.

• Xi Jinping consolidates power | Xi officially secured a third term as the Chinese Communist party’s head and unveiled a new leadership team packed with loyalists.

• ‘We do get surprises’ | Doctors are gleaning lessons from the Monkeypox outbreak. Though infections are receding globally, it’s possible cases could rise again. Dr Jake Dunning, senior researcher at Oxford university, said: “There could be a long, low tail on the epidemic curve . . . We have to accept uncertainties.”

• The end of ‘Trussonomics’ | Our visuals team chronicles the collapse of Liz Truss’s economic agenda and “mini” Budget, which contained £45bn of unfunded tax cuts, in charts and graphics.