Aston Villa and Leicester can get past some leaky defences in Fulham and Leeds as our tipster Jones Knows attacks the midweek card.
Fulham vs Aston Villa, Thursday 7.30pm
If you’re looking to play any team in the Premier League in order to give your strikers some confidence, Fulham are it.
Aston Villa are bound to get chances in this game against a side that has shipped at least two goals in nine of their 11 games across all competitions this season, including against Crawley Town in the Carabao Cup. Dominic Solanke became the eighth centre-forward to score playing Fulham this season as their weakness through the heart of their defence remains unfixed.
Villa are a team that like to focus their attacks in central areas. Danny Ings and Ollie Watkins were played together to good effect in the unfortunate 2-0 defeat to Chelsea – a game where Villa created a healthy expected goals figure of 1.79 but bumped into a goalkeeper possessed. I think Steven Gerrard’s men can fire home multiples goals in this one with the 5/4 with Sky Bet on them to score two or more standing out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Leicester vs Leeds, Thursday 8.15pm
If you required any evidence to show that Leicester are rated much higher than a relegation-threatened team just look at their match prices. Despite still sitting joint-bottom of the pile with just one win to their name and missing their best player in James Maddison due to suspension for this fixture, they are still 5/4 favourites with Sky Bet to beat Leeds, who have shown in patches this season they are no mugs.
The market is expecting Leicester to pick up results and climb the table. I can certainly see it, too. They were the better team in the 0-0 with Crystal Palace, playing with plenty of creativity without turning that into good quality chances as their expected goals data was quite low with Palace defending so deep.
Leicester’s Harvey Barnes celebrates
Leeds will afford the Leicester attackers more space here and Harvey Barnes looks overpriced to open the scoring at 15/2 with Sky Bet. He’s had 12 shots in his last four games to a healthy expected goals figure of 0.79 and looked very sharp when giving Joel Ward a torrid time cutting off the left flank against Palace. In the absence of Maddison, his goal threat is Leicester’s most potent weapon.